住房消费对我国cpi影响的初步估算.pdfVIP

摘 要 CPI 是分析宏观经济形势、判断通货膨胀水平、制定宏观经济 政策的重要依据，同时又与居民日常生活及企业和个人的微观经济 决策息息相关，因此，准确测算 CPI 就成为一项非常重要的工作。 目前我国政府公布的 CPI 八大基本类中，居住类支出虽然包括居民 的自有住房支出，但自有住房支出是以城镇及工矿区个人建房单位 面积工程造价计算出来的虚拟房租来代替的，而目前我国自有住房 中有相当一部分以房地产开发企业竣工房屋造价计算，所以官方公 布的住房消费并不能真正反映居民的生活水平，致使 CPI 有所失 实。 本文基于王军平的研究方法，通过一套更为合理权数，初步估 算了我国从 2001 年 1 月到 2009 年 4 月的 CPI 数据，并与官方公布 的数据进行了比较和分析。本文由四个部分组成，第一部分主要介 绍本文的选题背景及意义；第二部分讨论我国目前 CPI 中住房消费 的处理方法及缺陷；第三部分对我国 CPI 进行了重估并分析了其影 响；第四部分提出了一些改进我国 CPI 编制方法的建议。 关键词：住房消费 权数 居民消费价格指数 ABSTRACT II At present, there are eight basic categories in the official CPI of China, although the living expenses category includes expenditure on owner-occupied housing, this expenditure is replaced by the virtual rent which is calculated by per unit area of mining areas and towns individual housing construction cost. However, there is quite a number of housing in China is calculated based on the completed-housing costs of real-estate development enterprise. Therefore, the housing consumption of official announces cannot truly reflect the real situation of peoples life, causing bias in CPI. By using the methodology of Wang’s research, the China’s CPI between January of 2001 and April 2009 is re-estimated in this thesis. There are four parts in this thesis. The first part mainly introduces the subject background. The second part discusses the current treatment of housing service and drawbacks in compiling China’ CPI and so on. The third part re-estimate China’s CPI and analyzes the influence of housing service to China’s CPI. The fourth part gives some suggestions about improving China’s C