城市化与经济增长关系的统计研究.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 26 城市化与经济增长关系的统计研究 摘要：理解城市化和经济增长的关联机制，有助于促进国民经济协调发展。本文阐述了城市化与经济增长的互动理论基础，对城市化和经济增长的数据进行了统计描述，并且进行了实证分析，对1978—2013年的城市化水平和实际人均GDP的时间序列进行动态计量分析，利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等方法，发现城市化化与经济增长之间存在着长期动态的均衡关系，因果检验得出经济增长是城市化水平提高的格兰杰原因。改革开放前期，经济增长对城市化水平的提高作用明显，而随着改革开放的深入，中国经济步入新常态，城市化水平的提高对经济增长的促进效应更加明显。 根据论文的结果，得出相应的结论并且提出政策建议。 关键词：城市化；经济增长；协整检验；格兰杰因果检验 Statistical Research of the Relationship between Urbanization and Economic Growth Abstract: To understand the correlation of urbanization and economic growth mechanism helps to promote the coordinated development of national economy. This paper deals with the interaction of urbanization and economic growth theory basis and has carried on the statistical description of the data of the urbanization and economic growth. Then this paper has carried on the empirical analysis using the time series of the urbanization level of 1978-2013 and real per capita GDP with the help of cointegration test, granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition methods. The results suggested that there is a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between economic growth and urbanization and it is concluded that economic growth is the granger cause of urbanization. At the beginning of the reform and opening up, the economic growth helps to the improvement of urbanization level. With the deepening of the reform and opening up, the improvement of urbanization level owning to the promotion of economic growth effect becomes more apparent. According to the results of the paper, and the corresponding conclusions, we should raise policy advices. Keywords: Urbanization; Economic Growth; Cointegration Test. Granger Causality Test; 正文目录 一、引言 城市化和经济发展长期以来一直被认为是相互关联的，城市经济学家有时认为一个国家的经济地位由大城市的数量来决定。事实上，许多当今的发达国家的发展历史显然已经演示了一个当经济增长时，城市化相应的增长。关于城市化伴随着经济发展，城市化有两个方面的理解。一是城市化本身，二是城市集中，或者是说城市资源集中于一个或两个大城市的程度，而不是分布在许多城市。原因是显而易见的，通常一个国家的经济发展包含了从农业经济转换成工业经济，减小第一产业的比重，增加二、三产业的比重（以及从农业中释放劳动力，引入人力资源节省的科技）。这种转变涉及城市化、城市公司和工人集群。城市化为社会发展提供了必需的技术、人力、