基于“推拉理论”的城乡人口迁移意向分析：丰村研究.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 25 基于“推拉理论”的城乡人口迁移意向分析：丰村研究 摘要：本文基于“推拉理论”，通过建立城乡推拉作用的纳什均衡模型以及访谈丰村居民分别对城乡人口迁移意向的价值判断进行理论分析和实证分析，得出：农村及农村居民采取推力（进城）措施，同采取该措施获得的收益及额外收益呈正相关，同采取该措施付出的成本及额外成本呈负相关；城市及城市居民采取推力（限制）措施，同其采取拉力（鼓励）措施付出的成本呈正相关，同采取推力（限制）措施的成本及额外成本和采取拉力（鼓励）措施获得的额外收益呈负相关。其中，经济因素和社会因素是城乡人口迁移意向的直接影响因素。从而提出了“完善社区运行体制，推动迁移人口市民化”、“转变居民生活方式，增强转型社区城市性”、“发挥中心村的作用，平衡迁移人口收支”、“发展职业技术培训与教育，促进迁移人口就业与再就业”等四个政策建议。 关键词：推拉理论；人口迁移；意向；价值判断 Analysis of the migration intention of urban and rural population based on push and pull theory：a perspective of Feng Abstract: Based on the push and pull theory, this paper analyzes the value judgment of the urban and rural population migration intention through the establishment of Nash equilibrium model and interview. It is concluded that there is a positive correlation between thrust measures rural areas and rural residents taking and the income and the additional income they getting, and a negative correlation between thrust measures rural areas and rural residents taking and the cost and the additional cost they paying. It is also concluded that there is a positive correlation between thrust measures urban areas and urban residents taking and the cost they paying, and a negative correlation between thrust measures urban areas and urban residents taking and the cost and the additional cost they paying as well as the additional income they getting through tension measures. Among them, economic factors and social factors are the direct influence factors of the urban and rural population migration intention. Therefore, four policy recommendations are proposed which included “Improve the operation system of community and promote the quality of migrant populations”, “Change residents lifestyle and enhance the urban nature of the transformation community”, “Play central villages role and balance the revenue and expenditure of migrant populations”, “Develop vocational and technical training and education and promote employment and reemployment of migrant population”. K