人口年龄结构与经常项目——基于53个国家面板数据的实证研究.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 26 人口年龄结构与经常项目：基于53个国家面板数据的实证研究 摘要：随着人口老龄化的现象进入公众的视野，并越来越受到重视，大批学者研究了人口年龄结构与经常项目之间所存在的联系。而在以往的实证研究中，通过理论分析与数据检验，大部分学者均认为两者具有联系,且人口结构通过影响储蓄率施加作用于经常项目。本文的目的在于检验人口年龄结构-储蓄率-经常项目这一传导机制是否存在。为保证数据的完整性，本文选取了53个国家，采集了这些国家从1980-2014年的经常项目占GDP比重（cap）、社会储蓄率（s）以及少年、劳动和老年三个年龄段人口占总人口比例（young、labor、old）等面板数据，采用回归模型进行样本分析。实证结果表明，少年人口比例与储蓄率呈负相关，劳动人口比例与储蓄率呈正相关，而老年人口与储蓄率呈正相关，同时各年龄结构人口与经常项目呈现相同的关系。由于我国也正逐渐步入老龄化社会，二胎政策的影响效应还未知，因此我国政府在制定与经常项目有关的政策时，应当审慎考虑我国国情，合理的制定各项制度。 关键词：人口年龄结构；经常项目；储蓄率 Age structure and current account：An empirical study based on 53 countries’ data Abstract: With the population aging phenomenon coming into the public view, and getting more and more attention, a large number of scholars study the link between the population age structure and the current account. In the previous empirical research, through theoretical analysis and data validation, most scholars agree that the population age structure influences the current account by national savings. This article aims to examine the route, the age structure of the population - the savings rate - the current account, do exist. To ensure data’s integrity, I selected 53 countries, collected the current account share of GDP (cap), social savings rate(s), young people share of total(young), labor people share of total(labor) and old people share of total(old) from 1980-2014,then I used regress model to analysis them. The empirical results show that the proportion of the juvenile population and the savings rate was negatively correlated, the proportion of the labor force and savings rates were positively correlated, and the elderly population and the savings rate was positively correlated, while each of the age structure of the population and the current account show the same relationship. Because China is also gradually entered the aging society, the affect of two-child policy is still unknown, and therefore our government should carefully consider Chinas national conditions and reasonable development of the s