人口预期寿命的影响因素.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 24 人口预期寿命的影响因素 摘要：本文着重对人口预期寿命这一指标进行分析。第六次人口普查数据显示，我国的人口预期寿命为74.83岁，较第五次人口普查的结果稍有上升。本文先选取了2010年第六次人口普查31省市可能影响人口预期寿命的截面数据进行横向分析，再对2000年到2010年之间全国可能影响人口预期寿命的时间序列数据进行纵向分析。首先，通过阅读各类文献，本文将可能影响人口预期寿命的因素分为五大类，即经济发展因素、环境因素、教育水平因素、医疗服务水平因素以及其他客观因素。再从五个大因素中选取11个小因素，对它们的截面数据和时间序列数据进行相关分析，计算相关系数，定性分析它们与预期寿命之间的关系。然后再对这11个因素进行逐步回归，发现有4个因素进入了截面回归模型，分别是居民消费水平、出生率、林地面积和卫生机构数；有3个因素进入了时间数列回归模型，分别是居民消费水平、出生率和普通高等学校在校学生数。之后对模型进行统计检验，并作出合理的解释。最后本文还为如何提高人口预期寿命提出了建议和意见。 关键词：预期寿命；影响因素；回归分析； Factors affecting the life expectancy of the population Abstract: This paper focuses on the analysis of life expectancy this index. The sixth census data show that Chinas life expectancy is 74.83 years old, slightly increased compared to the results of the fifth census. This article first selected the 2010 sixth census of 31 provinces and cities may affect life expectancy of the cross-section data of horizontal analysis, then in 2000 to 2010 between the affected life expectancy time series data for longitudinal analysis. First, by reading various literatures, this paper classifies the possible effects of population life expectancy factors into five categories, namely economic development factors, environmental factors, the level of education, medical service level factors and other objective factors. Then select the 11 factors from the five factors,do the correlation analysis of cross-section data and time series data,calculate the correlation coefficient, qualitative analysis of the relationship between them and the life expectancy. Then do stepwise regression on the 11 factors, found four factors into the cross-sectional regression models, the consumption level of residents, the birth rate, woodland area and the number of health care institutions, three factors into the time series regression model, were resident consumption level, the number of rate and the ordinary higher school students. At last,this paper puts forward some suggestions and opinions about how to improve the life expecta