银行信贷与地区经济发展的关系研究.doc

PAGE PAGE 20 银行信贷与地区经济发展的关系研究：浙江案例 摘要 地区生产总值是指本地区所有常住单位在一定时期内生产活动的最终成果，是衡量一个地区经济增长的重要指标。改革开放以来，得益于人口红利、资源红利及全球化红利的巨大贡献，全省生产总值持续增长，浙江由一个经济小省一跃成为经济大省，是我国东部沿海经济发达的省份之一。本文从银行信贷与浙江地区经济发展的现状着手，通过分析1978年至2013年的浙江省相关年度数据，选取银行金融机构贷款余额(LOAN)、财政支出额(FC)以及地区生产总值(GDP)为数据样本，通过单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验等研究分析，研究这几种主要的资金量与浙江经济发展的关系，以探讨银行信贷与地区经济发展的关系。 关键词：信贷；经济发展；协整检验； Study on the relationship between bank credit and area economic development, Zhejiang case ABSTRACT GDP refers to the region in a given period of all resident units of the final results of production activities, it is a measure of an important indicator of economic growth. Since the reform and opening policy in 1970s, thanks to a significant contribution to the demographic dividend, dividends and the dividends of globalization of resources, Zhejiang Province, consists of a small economy became the largest economy in the?provinces, it is one of the economically developed eastern coastal provinces in China.?On this basis, the analysis of the relationship between changes in bank credit impact on economic development in the region. From bank credit and current situation of economic development to proceed in Zhejiang province, Zhejiang province by analyzing the relevant annual data from 1978 to 2013, select The loan balance of financial institutions(LOAN), financial expenditure (FC) and the gross domestic product (GDP) of data samples?through the unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model, Granger causality test?analysis, research in this relationship between the amount of funds several major economic development in Zhejiang, to investigate the relationship between bank credit and economic. KEY WORDS: Bank Credit；Economic development；Cointegration Test； 一、 绪论 （一） 研究背景和意义 长期以来，在各国金融体系中，银行信贷占据了重要地位，是促进经济增长的有效助推力，毫不质疑其发挥了核心贡献。国际金融危机后，在各国相继经济转型的过程中，金融体系的作用得到了更好的发挥。而在资本主义国家经济发展的背景下，金融机构尤其是银行业对其到底贡献了多大的力量这一重点课题值得探究。自1978年改革开放以来，我国经济迅速发展，增长速度连续十年保持10％以上，对于任何西方国家都是不敢想象的。同时这飞跃的增长引起学者们的兴趣，他们开始对中国经济增长进行研究，以达到获得其缘由，