养猪生产手册-17市场预测(英文）.pdfVIP

Swine Production Handbook Section 17: Futures Market Page 170 FUTURES MARKET FUTURES MARKET IN GENERAL 1. Introduction A. Futures trading in the livestock has existed only since the mid 1960s, compared with the 100-plus year history of futures trading in the grain. B. The success of the futures market has provided the livestock producer with a powerful risk-avoidance tool, the futures hedge. L Can provide a protection against ìmarket fluctuations,î and perhaps an essential tool for todayís livestock producers (also crop producers others) to ìsurvive!î C. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a commodity at a later date: 1) Usually, not a purchase or sale of actual commodities. 2) Basically, neither the title nor money changes hands. 3) Few contracts (1-2%) ever mature or get consummated, i.e., usually settled by taking an opposite or offsetting transaction before the contract matures! e.g., ìSoldî a contract(s)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Buy it back before a deadline! ìBoughtî a contract(s)? . . . . . . . . . . . . Sell it before a deadline! L If no offsetting transaction is taken, then we have to ìdeliver (if we have sold a contact)î or accept (if we have bought contract) a commodity! 2. General Terms A. Futures market speculation: 1) Essentially speculators have, for instance, no pigs to sell, and they buy or sell futures market to make profits (or take losses), just like ìstock market!î a) Speculators are taking a risk, and they are providing producers ( packers too!) an opportunity. b) Without speculatorsí buying or sel