“中欧班列+海运”系统多主体协同运营仿真研究.pdfVIP

“中欧班列+海运”系统多主体 协同运营仿真研究 Simulation Research on Multi-Agent Collaborative Operation of “China Railway Express + Shipping” System 摘 要 ：海铁联运是货运领域的重点发展方向。在中欧班列开行背景下 ，“中欧班列+海 运”推动贸易畅通、助力 “一带一路”深层次发展。为厘清 “中欧班列+海运”系统内各 主体间的动态互动关联、探索影响因素间的动态变化机理，通过对 “中欧班列+海运”进 行系统分析，构建了面向 “中欧班列+海运”协同度的系统动力学模型，考虑补贴对中欧 班列的重要性、运价在货主选择时的高敏感性、协同度对系统稳定运营的关键作用，以 “中欧班列 （成都）+ 宁波海运”这条代表性的海铁联运线路为例，设计了关于政府补贴、 运价、协同度的仿真方案。结论表明：提高政府补贴系数、降低运价、提高主体协同度对 “中欧班列+海运”系统运营起到积极效果，其中政府补贴发挥最为关键的作用。 关键词：综合运输；政府补贴；协同；系统动力学；中欧班列；仿真 Abstract: Sea-rail intermodal transportation is a key development direction in the field of freight transportation. In the context of the opening of the China Railway Express, “China Railway Express + shipping” can promote unimpeded trade and facilitate the in-depth development of countries of the “Belt and Road Initiative”. To clarify the dynamic interaction among various entities in the “China Railway Express + shipping” system and explore the dynamic change mechanism among the influencing factors, this paper made a systematic analysis of “China Railway Express + shipping” and constructed a system dynamics model for the synergy degree of “China Railway Express + shipping”. The model considered the importance of government subsidies to China Railway Express, the high sensitivity of freight rates in the selection of cargo owners, and the key role of synergy degree in the stable operation of the “China Railway Express + shipping” system. Moreover, this paper took the representative sea–rail intermodal transportation route of “China Railway Express (Chengdu) + Ningbo shipping” as an example and designed the simulation schemes concerning government subsidies, freight rates, and synergy degre