灰色预测模型matlab程序精确版.docVIP

灰色预测模型matlab程序精确版

%x=[1019,1088,1324,1408,1601];gm1(x);测试数据

%二次拟合预测GM(1,1)模型

functiongmcal=gm1(x)

ifnargin==0

x=[1019,1088,1324,1408,1601]

end

formatlongg

sizex=length(x);

%求数组长度

k=0;

fory1=x

k=k+1;

ifk1

x1(k)=x1(k-1)+x(k);

%累加生成

z1(k-1)=-0.5*(x1(k)+x1(k-1));

%z1维数减1，用于计算B

yn1(k-1)=x(k);

else

x1(k)=x(k);

end

end

%x1,z1,k,yn1

sizez1=length(z1);

%size(yn1);

z2=z1;

z3=ones(1,sizez1);

YN=yn1;%转置

%YN

B=[z2z3];

au0=inv(B*B)*B*YN;

au=au0;

%B,au0,au

afor=au(1);

ufor=au(2);

ua=au(2)./au(1);

%afor,ufor,ua

%输出预测的au和u/a的值

constant1=x(1)-ua;

afor1=-afor;

x1t1=x1(t+1);

estr=exp;

tstr=t;

end

%x4fcast

fork41=nfinal:-1:0

ifk411

x41fcast(k41+1)=x4fcast(k41)-x4fcast(k41-1);

else

ifk410

x41fcast(k41+1)=x4fcast(k41)-x(1);

else

x41fcast(k41+1)=x(1);

end

end

end

x41fcast,x

%二次拟合预测值

%***精度检验pC************//////////////////////////////////

k5=0;

fory5=x

k5=k5+1;

ifk5sizex

else

err1(k5)=x(k5)-x41fcast(k5);

end

end

%err1

%绝对误差

xavg=mean(x);

%xavg

%x平均值

err1avg=mean(err1);

%err1avg

%err1平均值

k5=0;

s1total=0;

fory5=x

k5=k5+1;

ifk5sizex

else

s1total=s1total+(x(k5)-xavg)^2;

end

end

s1suqare=s1total./sizex;

s1sqrt=sqrt(s1suqare);

%s1suqare,s1sqrt

%s1suqare残差数列x的方差s1sqrt为x方差的平方根S1

k5=0;

s2total=0;

fory5=x

k5=k5+1;

ifk5sizex

else

s2total=s2total+(err1(k5)-err1avg)^2;

end

end

s2suqare=s2total./sizex;

%s2suqare残差数列err1的方差S2

Cval=sqrt(s2suqare./s1suqare);

Cval

%nnn=0.6745*s1sqrt

%CvalC检验值

k5=0;

pnum=0;

fory5=x

k5=k5+1;

ifabs(err1(k5)-err1avg)0.6745*s1sqrt

pnum=pnum+1;

%ppp=abs(err1(k5)-err1avg)

else

end

end

pval=pnum./sizex;

pval

%p检验值

%arr1=x41fcast(1:6)

%预测结果为区间范