Coface科法斯：2023年第三季度国家和部门风险晴雨表：微观经济恶化考验宏观经济（英文版）.pdf

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COFACEECONOMICOCTOBER2023

PUBLICATIONS

BAROMETER

COUNTRYANDSECTORRISKSBAROMETER-Q32023

BytheCoface

Economic

Researchteam

Macroeconomicsputtothetestby

microeconomicdeterioration

Thenear-continuousfallininflationoverthelastfewmonths,againstabackdropofeasingcommodityprices,coupledwithbuoyant

labourmarketsandastillsolidwagedynamic,hasrekindledhopesofasoftlandingfortheglobaleconomy.Nowtakenforgranted,

oralmost,intheUnitedStates,suchhopesaregaininggroundinEurope,wheretheenergysituationisfarmorereassuringthanit

wasayearago,andwherefinancebilldraftssuggest-forthetimebeing-onlya(very)slighttighteningofthefiscalscrews.China,

whichpreferstotakethelongerroutetopurgetheexcessesofthepast,willcertainlyslowsignificantly(+4%in2024,after+4.5%

thisyear)butwillcontinuetobeoneofthemainenginesofastillconvalescentworldeconomy.Inshort,thespectreofrecessionis

receding,asevidencedbythefactthatyieldcurvesinmostdevelopedeconomiesarelessandlessinverted.

Whiletheoveralleconomicpictureisundoubtedlybetterthanayearago,wedonotendorsethishighlyoptimisticreadingofthe

situation.Overandabovetherisksthathavealreadybeenmentionedmanytimes,someofwhichcontinuetointensify(financial

stability,socialandpoliticalrisks-whichweareupdatinginthisneweditionofourbarometer),weshouldbearinmindthatthe

fightagainstinflationhasnotyetbeenwon,orevenenteredits(painful)lastmile:excludingenergy,inflationremainswellabovethe

targetssetbycentralbanks,whilethesituationontheoilmarketshas(again)becometensefollowingtheattacksinIsrael.Rather

thantryingtoreadtheomensinyieldcurves,whichhavebeenrenderedillegiblebycen

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