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COFACEECONOMICOCTOBER2023
PUBLICATIONS
BAROMETER
COUNTRYANDSECTORRISKSBAROMETER-Q32023
BytheCoface
Economic
Researchteam
Macroeconomicsputtothetestby
microeconomicdeterioration
Thenear-continuousfallininflationoverthelastfewmonths,againstabackdropofeasingcommodityprices,coupledwithbuoyant
labourmarketsandastillsolidwagedynamic,hasrekindledhopesofasoftlandingfortheglobaleconomy.Nowtakenforgranted,
oralmost,intheUnitedStates,suchhopesaregaininggroundinEurope,wheretheenergysituationisfarmorereassuringthanit
wasayearago,andwherefinancebilldraftssuggest-forthetimebeing-onlya(very)slighttighteningofthefiscalscrews.China,
whichpreferstotakethelongerroutetopurgetheexcessesofthepast,willcertainlyslowsignificantly(+4%in2024,after+4.5%
thisyear)butwillcontinuetobeoneofthemainenginesofastillconvalescentworldeconomy.Inshort,thespectreofrecessionis
receding,asevidencedbythefactthatyieldcurvesinmostdevelopedeconomiesarelessandlessinverted.
Whiletheoveralleconomicpictureisundoubtedlybetterthanayearago,wedonotendorsethishighlyoptimisticreadingofthe
situation.Overandabovetherisksthathavealreadybeenmentionedmanytimes,someofwhichcontinuetointensify(financial
stability,socialandpoliticalrisks-whichweareupdatinginthisneweditionofourbarometer),weshouldbearinmindthatthe
fightagainstinflationhasnotyetbeenwon,orevenenteredits(painful)lastmile:excludingenergy,inflationremainswellabovethe
targetssetbycentralbanks,whilethesituationontheoilmarketshas(again)becometensefollowingtheattacksinIsrael.Rather
thantryingtoreadtheomensinyieldcurves,whichhavebeenrenderedillegiblebycen
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