人工智能对劳动力市场的影响+The+Impact+of+AI+on+the+Labour+Market.docx

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人工智能对劳动力市场的影响+The+Impact+of+AI+on+the+Labour+Market.docx

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NOVEMBER2024

SAMSHARPS

THOMASSMITHJAMESBROWNEOLIVERLARGE

RHEASUBRAMANYAPEICHINTAY

DANAEELLINA

ISABELATKINSONJESSLYTHGOW

RITHIKAMURALIDHARAN

TheImpactofAIontheLabourMarket

TONYBLAIR

INSTITUTEFOR

GLOBALCHANGE

Contents

SettingtheScene

ThePotentialImpactofAIonLabourMarkets

PolicySolutions

Conclusion

Acknowledgements

THEIMPACTOFAIONTHELABOURMARKET

ExecutiveSummary

Technologyhasalonghistoryofprofoundlyreshapingtheworldofwork.

Fromthedawnoftheagriculturalrevolutiontothedigitalage,eachwaveofinnovationhasredefinedthestructure,natureanddynamicsoflabour

markets.

Today,theworldisonthebrinkofanothertechnologicalrevolution,enabledbyartificialintelligence,thathasthepotentialtoreshapetheworldofwork

yetagain.Thiscomingwaveislikelytoarrivemorequicklythanits

predecessors,giventhepaceoftechnologicaladoptionhasbeen

acceleratingandbecauseAIitselfisadvancingsoquickly.Policymakersneedtopreparenowtoensuretheirworkersandlabourmarketsare

equippedtoridethecomingwaveandbenefitfromit.

InthisreportweusenovelanalysistoexplorehowAIcouldaffectthelabourmarket,withspecificreferencetotheUnitedKingdom.Althoughmuch

discussionofAIiscurrentlybasedaroundlargelanguagemodels(LLMs),thisispartofabroaderstoryaboutautomation,whichtakesinphysical

tasksaswellascognitiveones.Ourstudythereforeaimstotakeawider

viewthatincorporatesabroaderdefinitionofAI,includingAI-enabled

hardware,andthatexaminesthreekeywaysthatAIcouldaffectthelabour

market:throughdemand,supplyandbychangingtheworkplaceexperience:

Labourdemand:WeestimatethatfullandeffectiveadoptionofAIbyUKfirmscouldsavealmostaquarterofprivate-sectorworkforcetime–

equivalenttotheannualoutputof6millionworkers.

ThepotentialforAItosavetimeandboostproductivitywillvary

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