What if AI is just a “normal” technology如果人工智能只是一种“普通”技术呢？.pdfVIP

What
if
artificial
intelligence
is
just
a

“normal”
technology

Finance

economics
|
Free
exchange

What
if
artificial
intelligence
is
just
a
“normal”

technology

Its
rise
might
yet
follow
the
path
of
previous
technological
revolutions

September
4th
2025

Opinions
about
artificial
intelligence
tend
to
fall
on
a
wide
spectrum.
At
one
extreme
is
the

utopian
view
that
AI
will
cause
runaway
economic
growth,
accelerate
scientific
research
and

perhaps
make
humans
immortal.
At
the
other
extreme
is
the
dystopian
view
that
AI
will
cause

abrupt,
widespread
job
losses
and
economic
disruption,
and
perhaps
go
rogue
and
wipe
out

humanity.
So
a
paper
published
earlier
this
year
by
Arvind
Narayanan
and
Sayash
Kapoor,
two

computer
scientists
at
Princeton
University,
is
notable
for
the
unfashionably
sober
manner
in

which
it
treats
AI:
as
“normal
technology”.
The
work
has
prompted
much
debate
among
AI

researchers
and
economists.

Both
utopian
and
dystopian
views,
the
authors
write,
treat
AI
as
an
unprecedented
intelligence

with
agency
to
determine
its
own
future,
meaning
analogies
with
previous
inventions
fail.

Messrs
Narayanan
and
Kapoor
reject
this,
and
map
out
what
they
see
as
a
more
likely
scenario:

that
AI
will
follow
the
trajectory
of
past
technological
revolutions.
They
then
consider
what
this

would
mean
for
AI
adoption,
jobs,
risks
and
policy.
“Viewing
AI
as
normal
technology
leads
to

fundamentally
different
conclusions
about
mitigations
compared
to
viewing
AI
as
being

humanlike,”
they
note.

The
pace
of
AI
adoption,
the
authors
argue,
has
been
slower
than
that
of
innovation.
Many

people
use
AI
tools
occasionally,
but
at
an
intensity
in
America
(in
hours
of
usage
per
day)
that
is

still
low
as
a
fraction
of
overall
working
hours.
For
adoption
to
lag
behind
innovation
is
not

surprising,
because
it
takes
time
for
people
and
companies
to
adapt
habits
and
workflows
to

new
technologies.
Adoption
is
also
hampered
by
the
fact
that