野村-随着旺季临近汽车电池出货量增加-2025-09-市场解读.docxVIP

NOAURA

ChinaAuto/EV/Batteries

EQUITY:AUTOSAUTOPARTS

Increasingshipmentsaspeakseasonapproaches

Aug-25EVpenetrationfinallyshowssomeimprovement

Sequentialimprovementinsalesasyear-endapproaches,whilecompetition

dynamicsremainunchanged

TheChinaautomarketdelivered2.5mnwholesalesunitshipments(+16.4%y-y,+11.0%m-m)and2.0mnretailunitshipments(+4.6%y-y,+8.2%m-m)inAug-25,bothshowingasequentiallyimprovingtrend,accordingtoCAAMandCPCA.ChinaPVEVmonthlyretailsalesreached1.1mnunitsshipment(+7.3%y-y,+11.5%m-m).WebelieveEV

penetrationhasfinallycrosseditsmonthlyrecord,reaching54.5%,butafterayearsgap.WereaffirmourviewthattheslowingdownofEVpenetrationin2025willlikelybringmorechallengesaheadfortheentireindustryin2026F.

Intheremainingpartof2025,withBYDalreadyshiftingitsfocustoitsstrategyfor2026,weseenomajorchangesinthecompetitionlandscape.Hence,YTDmarketshare

公众号:A1pha外资风向标winnerssuchasGeelyandLeapmotorshouldcontinueenjoyingthecurrentmomentum.Andnewmodelswilllikelycontinuetobekeycatalystsfornewcar-makingforces,suchasNIOsnewES8,LiAutosi6andXPENGsX9EREVversion.Asthemarketisyettoreachthe

公众号:A1pha外资风向标

vulnerableinto2026F.WemaintainourcautiousviewontheentireChinaautomarketsdevelopmentbeforeseeinganymeaningfulbalancingeffortonthesupply-demand

dynamics.

Pricecompetitionandfosonmarketsharegainresultinvulnerablefinancialsfor

mostoftheOEMsin1H25;overseasmarketmayunderpinlong-termgrowth,but

wealsoseeriskahead

AsOEMshavealreadyreportedtheir1H25results,theASPsfortheentiremarketarestillonadownwardtrend,thereforeresultinginpressureonGPM.Meanwhile,todealwith

competition,OEMsremainactiveinRDandSGAexpenditure,thereforecreating

furtherpressureontheirprofitability.Astheoversupplysituationremai