欧洲央行-从伯南克-布兰查德模型看欧元区通货膨胀的财政来源（英）-2025.pdfVIP

WorkingPaperSeries

DennisBonam,Thefiscalsourcesofeuroarea

MarianaMontserratCerraPacheco,

CristinaChecherita-Westphalinflationthroughthelensofthe

Bernanke-Blanchardmodel

No3153

Disclaimer:ThispapershouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheEuropeanCentralBank

(ECB).TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheECB.

Abstract

Weestimatethecontributionofdiscretionaryfiscalpolicymeasurestoeuroareainfla-

tioninthepost-pandemicerausinganextensionofBernankeandBlanchard(2024b)’s

semi-structuralmodel.Sincethepandemic,aggregatediscretionaryfiscalmeasures

hadamodestyetprogressivelyincreasingpositivecontributiontoinflationthatpartly

workedthroughanindirecteffectonwagegrowthandinflationexpectations.However,

netindirecttaxeshelpedtocontaininflationarypressures,bothduringthepandemic

andenergycrises.Fiscalpolicy,therefore,canbeapowerfultooltosmooththeinfla-

tionaryeffectsofadversesupplyshocks,yetmayalsoincreaseinflationpersistenceif

fiscalstimulusisnottimelywithdrawn.

JELClassification:C5,E32,E47,E62

Keywords:inflation,fiscalpolicy,semi-structuralmodel

ECBWorkingPaperSeriesNo31531

Non-technicalSummary

Onthebackdropofthesurgeinglobalinflationoverthepastyears,thispaperaimstoprovide

newevidenceonthecontributionofdiscretionaryfiscalpolicymeasurestoinflationinthe

euroarea,duringandafterthepandemic.Tothi