2026年1月全球贸易动态报告.pptxVIP

1Globaleconomicandtradegrowthslows–developingcountrieswillfaceheadwinds.2Updatingtherules–WTOreformatacrossroadsforglobaltradein2026.3Tariffsontherise–increasedprotectionismmaytriggergreaterpolicyuncertainty.4Valuechainscontinuetoreconfigure–geopoliticsredrawstradeandinvestmentmaps.5Servicificationoftrade–exportsofservicescontinuetogrowfasterthangoods.6South–Southtradesurge–developingcountriesdriveglobalexportgrowth.7Sustainabletrade–environmentwillcontinuetobepartofglobaltradeinitiatives.8Criticalminerals-oversupplyandgeopoliticsmaydestabilizetradeandglobalvaluechains.9Feedingthefuture–agriculturaltradewillremainfundamentaltofoodsecurity.10Traderegulationstighten–nationalpoliciesreshapeglobalcommerce.JANUARY2026GlobaltradeupdatePolicyInsightsToptrendsredefiningglobaltradein2026KEYTRENDS?AdobeStock

Globaleconomicandtradegrowthslows–developingcountrieswillfaceheadwindsGlobalgrowthremainssluggish.Globaleconomicgrowthin2026willmoderatetradeprospects,investmentflows,andpolicychoices.UNCTADestimatesglobalgrowthwillremainsubduedat2.6percentin2025and2026,despitepotentialgainsfromtechnologiessuchasartificialintelligence.1Growthindevelopingeconomies(excludingChina)isexpectedtoeaseslightlyto4.2percentin2026,downfrom4.3percentin2025,pointingtoavolatileexternalenvironment.2Majoreconomieswillalsolosemomentum.TheUnitedStatesgrowthisprojectedat1.5percentin2026,downfrom1.8percentin2025,whileChina—anessentialtradeandinvestmentpartnerformanydevelopingcountries—isexpectedtoexpandby4.6percentin2026,downfrom5percentin2025.InEurope,fiscalstimulusincountrieslikeGermanymayofferlimitedsupport,butoveralldemandwillremainmodest.3Globalt