人民币双边实际汇率与中美贸易关联的实证研究.docVIP

  人民币双边实际汇率与中美贸易关联的实 证研究 杨胜刚，马威* 5 10 15 25 30 35 40 （湖南大学金融与统计学院，长沙 410079） 摘要：自 2007 年汇改以来人民币持续升值，但近几个月来美国仍联合欧盟等国对中国施压， 意图扩大人民币升值幅度，因此研究中美双边实际汇率和双边贸易对中美各自出口贸易的影 响具有重要意义。本文通过建立人民币双边实际汇率与中美贸易的出口模型，通过协整检验， 误差修正模型来分析双边实际汇率，竞争国的汇率和进口国的实际 GDP 对中美各自出口贸 易的影响，得出人民币对美元汇率每下降 1%，中国对美国的出口就增加 0.6%，日元比美元 更具优势的影响不明显。同时，美元对人民币的汇率每下降 1%，美国对中国的出口就会上 升 2.43%，但是加元比人民币更具优势的影响是显著的。 关键词：中美贸易;人民币双边实际汇率;加元;日元;误差修正 中图分类号：F830.92 Empirical study of the relevance between the bilateral effective exchange rate of RMB and U.S.-China trade YANG Shenggang, MAWei (Finance and Statistics School, Hunan University, Changsha 410079) Abstract: The exchange rate of the yuan continues to appreciate since the exchange rate regime reform started in 2007.But in recent months,America still pressures China to expand the range of appreciation of the yuan along with the EU.So it has important implications to study the influence on the export trade of US and China respectively caused by the bilateral effective exchange rate and bilateral trade.By establishing export model of the bilateral effective exchange rate of RMB and U.S.-China trade,this paper analysis the effects that bilateral effective exchange rate,exchange rate of competitors and the real GDP of importing countries would cause on export trade of China and the U.S. respectively through co-integration test and error correction model.Then this paper find out that China’s export to America will increase by 0.6% as the yuan-dollar exchange rate decreases by 1% and the effect that yen is better than the dollar is not obvious.Meanwhile,the America’s export to China will increase by 2.43% as the dollar-yuan exchange rate decreases by 1%,but the impact that Canadian dollar has advantages over yuan is prominent. Key words: U.S.-China trade;the bilateral effective exchange rate of RMB;Canadian dollar;yen;error correction 0 引言 自 2007 年人民币汇率形成机制改革以来，人民币汇率持续保持升值的趋势，但是在美 国看来，这仍是远远不够的。新年伊始，美国著名经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼在纽约时报发表 专栏文章《中国人的新年》，他将美国高额的贸易逆差与国内的高失业率归因于被低估的人 民币汇率，并极力为