公司财务预警模型及其应用研究毕业论文.docVIP

毕业论文 （20_ _届） 公司财务预警模型及其应用研究 摘 要 财务危机是市场经济中的普遍现象。随着我国大力发展资本市场，市场经济体制改革逐步深化完善，上市公司在面临竞争环境越来越激烈的情况下，不可避免使一些企业陷入财务危机。企业一旦发生危机，就会危及经济生活中的多个方面，产生极大的影响。为了能够增强公司的抵抗风险能力，使公司经营者能尽早得知公司潜在的危险而采取相应的措施就显得十分必要。因此，对上市公司财务预警模型的研究就成了财务理论界和实务界关注的焦点。 企业陷入财务危机是一个逐步的过程，通常从财务正常渐渐发展到财务危机。实践中，大多数企业的财务危机都是由财务状况正常到逐步恶化，最终导致财务危机或破产的。因此，企业的财务危机不但具有先兆，而且是可预测的。财务危机预警作为一种诊断工具，对于经营者防范财务危机、对于保护投资者和债权人的利益、对于政府管理部门的监控，都具有重要的现实意义。 本文在对财务危机进行概念探讨的基础上，以上市公司被管理部门特别处理与否作为选择财务危机与财务正常企业样本类别的依据；同时在分析多种财务预警模型基础上选择Z—Score模型作为分析的方法，通过权威的证券网站以及本校的财务分析系统选取了2010年我国深沪两市30家因为“财务状况异常”而被ST的制造业上市公司，以及财务正常的30家制造业上市公司作为对照分析样本。通过分析得出了一个判定制造业上市公司是否会发生财务危机的Z临界值。最后通过对所选样本进行Z值检验，其判别结果有一定的准确性。其结论旨在对制造业上市公司财务预警分析提供帮助。 关键词：财务危机；预警模型；Z—Score模型  Abstract The financial distress is a common phenomenon in a market economy. Because companies face more and more worldwide competitions, some of them will fall into crisis. Financial crisis will badly affect economy from various aspects. The financial health of listed companies is in the interest of investors and creditors, so the study on financial position is extremely important. Enterprises fall into the financial crisis is a gradual process, usually form financial normal gradually develop to a financial crisis. For enterprise managers, investors, creditors and other stakeholders who evaluation of the operational situation, investment value of the credit situation, the study on financial distress is great practical significance. In this context, this paper reviews the field of classical literature at home and abroad from the defining of financial distress and forecasting model. Forecast models are reviewed with emphasis on the development, compared the advantages and disadvantages of various models. On the basis of summing up the results of previous studies and research, choosing 30 companies which have been ST by “abnormal financial situation”, and 30 normal companies，which is the same size same period and one industry. Result into a new Z value, which used to judge the listed manu