定期报告仍在观察期.pdfVIP

宏观经济 Report | Macro Analysis Regular Report Still in observation 5 February 2012 An Update on Euro-Zone Debt Crisis Development (1st Week Feb) Key Data USA  January manufacturing PMI of eurozone was 48.8, up1.8% QoQ, but still below 50, % 11E 12E showing that the economic outlook remains pessimistic. Germany and French PMI was 51 GDP 1.6 1.8 and 48.5, respectively. The leading indicator shows that economic growth rebound CPI 3.3 2.5 slightly, but the divergent trend of between Germany and French cause concerns. Unemployment 9.0 8.8 Trade -3.2 -3.0  During the EU summit, European leaders made two major agreements. 1. except the balance/GDP Fiscal UK and Czech, other EU member countries’ leader agreed on the draft of fiscal compact. balance/GDP -8.7 -7.2 2. ESM will start to implement in 2012, a year earlier than previously scheduled. The Policy rate 0.25 0.25 maximum bailout capacity was 500 bn Euros. However, the final call will depend on the Dollar Index 79.0 81.0 passage of fiscal compact by parliaments, which remains large uncertainties. Eurozone % 11E 12E  The Greek PSI negotiation was still ongoing, and discussion focus has shifted to GDP 1.5 -0.5 whether the ECB would take some haircuts. Due to the concerns of contagion, 10-year CPI 2.5 1.9 Unemployment