定期报告西班牙情况进一步恶化.pdfVIP

宏观经济 Report | Macro Analysis Regular Report Spanish Problem Deteriorating Further 21 July 2012 An Update on Euro-Zone Debt Crisis Development （4th Week July) Key Data USA  EC has reached the MoU of Spanish banking bailout scheme, but it failed to ease % 11 12E market tensions. Spanish government lowed its estimates of economic growth this GDP 1.6 2.0 year and the year after. Moreover, one of the largest local government asked for the CPI 3.3 2.5 central government bailout. Some funds have already increased their net position Unemployment 9.0 8.2 on USD and short on euros. Trade -3.2 -3.0 balance/GDP Fiscal  The MoU neither stated the exact size of the bailout nor the interest rate of the balance/GDP -8.7 -7.2 bailout. According to the Constitution of the EFSF / ESM, the specific amount of Policy rate 0.25 0.25 the aids needs to wait for the final assessment of banks. The current assessment has Dollar Index 79.0 81.0 been launched, is expected to end in September. In other words, we do not know Eurozone the exact size of the bailout until September. In addition, before ESM, the EFSF % 11 12E injected capital to FROB, which means a increasing government debt level. And GDP 1.4 -0.5 the first batch of 30 billion euros was only a reserve for emergency use. CPI 2.69 2.1 Unemploym