经验正交函数分解在上海地区低天气图方法中的应用.pdfVIP

气象科技 进展 经验正交函数分解在上海地区低频天气图 方法中的应用 1 1 2 信飞 李震坤 王超 （1 上海市气候中心，上海 200030；2 上海市松江区气象局，上海 201620） 摘要：用NCEP1逐日700hPa流场数据绘制低频天气图，统计低频天气图上的低频系统，重点研究上海地区汛期较强降 水过程发生期间的低频系统特征，借助向量场的经验正交函数分解方法（EOF）深入研究导致上海地区较强降水事件的 低频系统空间分布，综合考虑低频系统的完整性及所对应的天气实体等因素，将东亚地区划分为八个关键区，包括五个 活跃关键区及三个次活跃关键区。为构建低频配置模型，细致分析了上海地区汛期较强降水过程发生期间低频流场经向 量场的EOF分解所得的前四个主成分的空间分布特征。结果表明：南、北低频气流（暖、冷空气）的汇合，是造成上海 地区较强降水过程发生发展的最主要原因。此外，位于我国东部沿海地区的低频气旋及中低纬西太平洋地区的低频反气 旋也是导致上海地区发生较强降水过程的主要影响低频系统。 关键词： 低频天气图，延伸期预报，经验正交函数分解 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2013.01.008 The Empirical Orthogonal Function for the Predicting Method on the Low-Frequency Synoptic Weather Map 1 1 2 Xin Fei , Li Zhenkun ,Wang Chao (1 Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai 200030 2 Songjiang Meteorological Service, Shanghai 201620) Abstract: Based on NCEP1 700hPa daily wind data ,we draw a low-frequency synoptic weather map. First, we analyzed the low- frequency system on the low-frequency synoptic weather map, focusing on the low-frequency characteristics during the strong precipitation in the flood season over Shanghai. With the help of EOF method we made a thorough study of the spatial distribution of a low-frequency system. We took into consideration the integrity of a low-frequency system and the corresponding physical factors such as weather. The East Asia region can be divided into eight key areas. Then, by the concentration of a low-frequency system, 8 key areas are divided into five active key areas and three less active key zones. For the construction of a low-frequency allocation model, we made a detailed analysis of strong prec