应用灰色模糊马尔科夫链预测海河水质变化趋势.pdfVIP

中国环境科学 2014,34(3) ：810~816 China Environmental Science 应用灰色模糊马尔科夫链预测海河水质变化趋势 * 于 慧,孙宝盛 ,李亚楠,张 燕,齐庚申 (天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津 300072) 摘要：灰色 GM(1,1)模型在水质预测中得到了较为广泛的运用,但其存在灰色偏差与抗干扰能力弱的局限性,针对这一问题,将马尔科夫链 理论与模糊集合理论引入灰色 GM(1,1)预测模型,并应用该模型对海河三岔口断面的 DO 、COD 和 NH -N 3 项指标 2012~2016 年的浓度 Mn 3 变化趋势进行预测.结果表明,2004~2016 年,DO 及 NH3-N 浓度大致呈上升趋势,预计 2016 年分别可达 9.15,1.47mg/L;CODMn 浓度呈下降趋 势,预计 2016 年可达 3.91mg/L. 以2012 年的数据做验证,灰色模糊马尔科夫链模型的预测精度最高,可作为科学的水质预测方法. 关键词：GM(1,1)模型；模糊分类；马尔科夫模型 中图分类号：X824 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2014)03-0810-07 * Water quality prediction of Haihe River using grey-fuzzy-markov chain model. YU Hui, SUN Bao-sheng , LI Ya-nan, ZHANG Yan, QI Geng-shen (School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China). China Environmental Science, 2014,34(3)：810~816 Abstract ：The GM(1,1) model has been widely used in the prediction of water quality. But it had the disadvantages of grey bias and weak anti-jamming capability. To solve this problem, the markov chain theory and fuzzy classification were introduced into the grey forecasting model and a new method named the Grey-Fuzzy-Markov Chain Model was proposed. In this paper, the tendency changes of DO,COD and NH -N’s concentration were predicted in Haihe River from 2012 to 2016. Mn 3 The results showed that from 2004 to 2016 the concentration of DO and NH3-N would increase to 9.15 and 1.47mg/L respectively in 2016. Meanwhile the CODMn would decrease to 3.91mg/L in 2016. The concentration of DO,CODMn and NH -N in 2012 were forecasted to chec