经济转型时期社会经济系统非线性动力学行为研究.pdfVIP

竺致文等 No.: 0914 经济转型时期社会经济系统的非线性动力学行为研究◆ ★ 竺致文 王洪礼 许佳 天津大学机械工程学院，天津 300072 摘要 本文在 Samuelson-Hicks 模型的基础上，考虑了周期性波动对社会经济系统的影响，建立了社会经济动力系统的 非线性经济周期模型。运用非线性动力学理论分析了系统的稳定性和分岔条件，通过边界划分将社会经济发展形态划分 为三种不同的类型，分析了我国与西方发达国家国家在经济表现方面的差异。指出社会转型时期社会经济系统可能面临 的风险及其根源。理论和仿真结果表明投资加速数与边际储蓄倾向之差是引发社会经济系统发生分岔行为的主要因素。 关键词 社会经济系统 周期波动 非线性 分岔 Research on Nonlinear Characteristics of Social Economic System in Economic Transition Period Zhu Zhi-wen, Wang Hong-li, Xu Jia The School of Mechanical Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China Abstract Based on Samuelson-Hicks model, the nonlinear economic period model of social economic system was set up where the effect of periodic fluctuation on economic system was considered. Stability and bifurcation of system was analyzed in nonlinear dynamic theory, and three kinds of social economic form were divided. Difference between China and western countries in economy was pointed out, and the risk of social economic system in transition period was discussed. The results of theoretic analysis and simulation show that the difference between investment accelerator and the marginal propensity to save is the mail factor causing bifurcation of social economic system. Key words Social economic system, Periodic fluctuation, Nonlinear, Bifurcation 1引言 引入 Puu 提出的带有立方项的投资函数，建立社会经 社会经济系统的周期性很早就为经济学家所注 济动力系统的连续非线性经济周期动力学模型，并运 意。Paul Samuelson首先根据“乘数－加速原理”建立 用非线性动力学理论进行分析。 了最早的经济周期数学模型。该模型相当于一个线性 谐