运气学说预测疫病引发的思索_张维骏.pdfVIP

第 28 卷 第 4期 V ol. 28 N o. 4 2 0 1 0 年 4 月 CH INESE ARCH IVES O F TRAD IT OI NA L CH INESE M ED CI INE A p r. 2 0 1 0 1 2 张维骏 , 陶功定 1. 2008 , 4 30065; 2. , 0 30024 : 通过回顾 SAR S, 寻找癸未年有大疫的历史证据; 反观历史上的 3次大 疫, 探寻运气理论的可行性; 分析 2009 年甲型 H 1N 1流感的爆发符合运气理论的推断; 结合疾病与季节气候相关性的运气学现代研究剖析 了五运六气学说的局限性及合理性, 认为对于运气学说既不能机械推算, 也不可主观臆断; 既不能盲目夸大其预 测作用, 也不能一概否定其科学内涵应遵循生态巨系统的规律, 抱着实事求是的科学态度去深入研究, 这是最 终解开这一医学玄机的必由之路 : 运气; 疫病; 生态 : R226 : A : 167 3- 77 17 20 10 04 - 070 8- 03 Ponde r over Fo rcasting In ectious D isease s w ith the Doctrine o F ive E lem ents Mo tion and S ix K ind o Matrua l Factors 1 2 ZHANG W e-jun , TAO Gong-d ng 1. H ube Lollege of TCM, W uhan 430065, Hube , C h na; 2. Shanx College of T CM, T a y an 030024, Sh anx , Ch na A bstrac :t Through rev ew ng the SARS, seek ng h stor ca l ev dence of nfect on outbreak; R etrospect ng three pan- dem c plague n h sto ry, exp lor ng the feas b l ty of the theo ry of f ve e lements mo t on and s x k nds o f natural facto rs; A- na lys s ng the 2009 H 1N 1 nfluenza ou tbreak con fo rm ng to the deduct on of th s theory; Comb n ng m odern re levance re- search o f season, clm ate and d seases w th th s theory; A fte r pa rs ng the lm tat on and ret ona l ty of th s theo ry, cons d- er ng ne ther sm ple deduct on nor sub ject ve judgem ent; N e ther overstat ng ts fo recast ng funct on, no r deny ng ts sc- ent f c conno tat on. It s the f na l w ay to expose th s m ed ca l mystery to fo llow the rule o f eco log ca l g ant system, and prac t ca l and rea l st c att tude to furthe r study. K ey w ords: f ve e lem ents m o t on and s x k nds o f natural factors; pandem c p lague; eco logy , , 60 , : / , 56 0 20 , , , 20 , , [ 2] , 30 , 1995 , 1700 , 56 [ 2] , , [ 1] [ 3] , / - - 0 [ 4] , , , , 1 SARS : 2009- 11- 27 , , : 308732 11 200 3/ 0, , : 197 1- , , , , , / 0 , : 56 3000 5# : 1955 - , , , , , , : 56 6, / , 708 第 28 卷 第 4期 V ol. 28 N o. 4 2 0