The Challenge of Sample Design During Civil War.ppt

The Challenge of Sample Design During Civil War The Case of Southern Sudan Luka B. DENG New Sudan Centre for Statistics and Evaluation Cancun, Mexico, 2004 Presentation Outline 1. Introduction 2. Data Needs During Civil War 3. Challenges of Sample Design 4. Traditional Social Hierarchy 5. Conclusion 1. Introduction: Violent Conflict Civil wars are pronounced and endemic after the Cold War Highest Incidence of Civil Wars in Africa Half of African countries affected by civil war One in three African people affected by civil war What is “normal” is violence rather than peace in most parts of Africa Violent Conflict in Africa 2. Data Needs During Civil War Increased incidence of poverty Increased vulnerability and food insecurity (40% of people at risk of hunger and malnutrition from zones of active conflict in the early 2000) Recurrent famines (7 out 8 famines caused by civil wars in the 1990s) Increased humanitarian interventions (relief aid is replacing development assistance in the war affected countries) Increased need to monitor rural livelihoods in zones of active conflict 3. Challenges of Sample Design No census tradition or framework for comprehensive survey work Lack of relevant enumeration areas or sample frame Erratic and recurrent population movement Changing administrative boundaries Lack of cartographical and mapping references Statisticians dealing only with “normalcy” Then, how can we make sample design in such a situation of civil war! 4. Traditional Social Hierarchy Traditional social structure survives in civil wars more than any other institution. It is clearly defined down to a household level It is a custodian of community’s knowledge and experiences It is the basis for any administrative structure during civil war Use social structure to provide a workable frame for sample selection, although it is not ideal The Case of South Sudan Recurrent Civil wars (1955-1972, 1982-now) Agriculture as mainstay of the rural livelihoods More than