Predicting the Endpoints of Earthquake Ruptures.ppt

Predicting the Endpoints of Earthquake Ruptures Steven G. Wesnousky Nature, 444, 358-360, 2006 doi:10.1038/nature05275 Introduction Active fault traces are: Generally not continuous Segmented by discontinuities Stress concentrations resulting from slip at discontinuities may slow or stop rupture propagation and hence play a controlling role in limiting the length of earthquake rupture. Data Examined mapped surface ruptures of: 22 historical strike-slip earthquakes 10-420 km rupture lengths Mapping Fault Geometry Began circa 1968 (Borrego Mtn) Clear that active fault traces are discontinuous Discontinuities in fault traces often associated with endpoints of earthquake ruptures Focus on continental SS ruptures of length greater ~15 km Depth dimension of brittle failure during SS earthquakes limited to ~15 km owing to physical and frictional constraints Direction of rupture propagation may be viewed as principally horizontal for each event Approximately 2/3 of terminations of SS ruptures are also associated with geometrical steps in fault trace or the termination of the active fault on which they occurred Discussion Histogram gives a statistical idea as to whether or not an earthquake rupture will be associated with particular fault step or fault terminus A transition exists between 3 and 4 km, above which rupture has not been observed to propagate through Transition seems largely independent of rupture length Suggests that magnitude of stress changes and the volume effected by those stress changes at the leading edge of propagating ruptures are largely invariable during the rupture process Recent theoretical work implies that releasing steps should be easier to rupture through than restraining steps although it is releasing steps that are observed more frequently at the endpoints of earthquake ruptures Releasing steps outnumber restraining steps by six to one in the data set Observations indicate that deformation processes attendant on cumulative SS displacements ar