1951-2007a东北地区有效积温时空变化特征.pdfVIP

1951-2007a东北地区有效积温时空变化特征 刘景利 王志明 陈明 史奎桥 梁涛 张兵兵 周福然 常君德1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 （1.锦州市生态与农业气象中心，辽宁 锦州 121001；2.红谷滩新区云溪学校， 江西南昌330000） 摘要：利用1951-2007年东北三省86个站点最高气温和最低气温数据，通过arcgis 和SPSS软件研究分析了东北地区近57 年来大于10 ℃的有效积温的时空变化，结果表明： 东北三省有效积温在时间上呈显著递增趋势，其中吉林（P=0.024）、黑龙江（P=0.003）和 辽宁（P0.001）递增趋势依次增强；阐明了东北区域农业气候资源的发展变化，探讨气候 变化下，东北区域的农业发展存在的问题，增温导致有效积温增加，同时有可能加剧区域性 干旱，加快作物的生长和成熟，从而导致作物产量减少和品质下降。 关键词：有效积温 农业东北气候变化 Temporal and Spatial Variation in the growing degree day during 1951-2007 in Northeast China 1* 2 1 1 1 1 LIU Jing-li , WANG Zhi-ming , Chen Ming , Shi Kuiqiao , Liang Tao , Zhang Binbin , Zhou Fu-ran1, Chang Jun-De1 (1. Jinzhou Meteorological Bureau, Jinzhou 121001 China; 2. Yunxi School at Honggutan New District, Nanchang 330000, China) Abstract: Using the data of the minimum and maximum air temperature during 1951-2007 in Northeast China, the temporal and spatial variation in the effective accumulated temperature more than 10 ℃ was explored with Arcgis and SPSS software in this study. The results indicated that tended to significantly increase with time, and the increasing tendency is enhanced in the order of: Jilin Province (P=0.024) Heilongjiang Province (P=0.003) Liaoning Province (P0.001). The development and change of agriculture climate resource in the Northeast of china were indicated. The problems of agriculture development under climate change were discussed. Warming can lead to the increase of and regional drought, consequently accelerate the growth and maturity of crops and lead to the decline of crop yield and quality. Key words: effective accumulated temperature; phenology; agriculture; Northeast China; climatic change 1 引言 在过去100 年，全球气温以0.1 ℃/10a 的速度递增，在不考虑气候政策干预的情况下， 未来20 年