我国沿海地区旅游环境承载力预警探究.pdf

我国沿海地区旅游环境承载力预警研究 定指标权重与标准，运用状态空间评价法、综合指数法定量测度旅游环境承载力 预警指数，构建系统动力学动态仿真模型，确定系统目标及边界，绘制因果关系 反馈图，确定8 个状态变量、8 个速率变量、66 个辅助变量和113 个常量，编写 旅游环境承载力预警系统方程，并通过基于历史数据检验方法的合理性检验。 （4）我国沿海地区旅游环境承载力预警SD 仿真分析。根据旅游环境承载力 预警仿真模型，针对沿海11 个省、市、自治区，以2004 年为基准年，运用Vensim 软件对区域旅游环境承载力进行模拟仿真，确定警界区间，判断2004-2025 年间 区域旅游环境承载力预警指数的时序变化、空间差异和空间关联，并设计4 类调 控方案，通过仿真比较，探讨我国沿海地区旅游业的发展模式。 （5 ）我国沿海地区旅游环境承载力预警管理。从构建预警管理信息系统、 完善法制管理体系、协调利益相关者关系、优化系统内部环境和划分旅游主体功 能区等方面提出旅游环境承载力预警管理措施，保障预警系统正常运行。 关键词：旅游环境承载力；预警；系统动力学；沿海地区 II 万方数据 我国沿海地区旅游环境承载力预警研究 Study on the Early-Warning of the Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity in Coastal Areas in China Abstract With the world economic developing and social civilization progressing, it has been a global hot issue to achieve coordinated and sustainable development of the economical, social, ecological and environmental systems. The coastal areas in China gradually become the core region of the tourism economic development pattern with the most dynamic economy and potential, and tourism industry plays an irreplaceable role in promoting regional economic development, marine development, integrated land and sea, and the new eastern building. However, the tourism development in coastal areas brings tremendous pressure on the coastal environment, and overloaded phenomenon exists in many tourist destinations, causing modern urban diseases, resource depletion, land and sea pollution, ecosystem imbalance and other issues. Therefore it has an important practical significance and theoretical value t