不规则风速概率分布的混合半云建模方法-中国电机工程学报.PDFVIP

第 35 卷 第 6 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.35 No.6 Mar.20, 2015 1314 2015 年 3 月 20 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2015 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. DOI ：10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.06.004 文章编号：0258-8013 (2015) 06-1314-08 中图分类号：TM 71 不规则风速概率分布的混合半云建模方法 陈绍南，陈碧云，韦化，任龙，韦杏秋 (广西电力系统最优化与节能技术重点实验室(广西大学) ，广西壮族自治区 南宁市 530004) Mixed Half-cloud Modeling Method for Irregular Probability Distribution of Wind Speed CHEN Shaonan, CHEN Biyun, WEI Hua, REN Long, WEI Xingqiu (Guangxi Key Laboratory of Power System Optimization and Energy Technology (Guangxi University), Nanning 530004, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China) ABSTRACT: Aiming at the low fitting precision and the poor 关键词：不确定性数学；混合半云模型；风速模型；逆向云 universality of present wind speed probability distribution 发生器；正向云发生器 model, a modeling method for wind speed based on the mixed 0 引言 half-cloud model was presented according to the theory of uncertainty mathematics. The numerical characteristics of area 风功率预测是风电场风能资源评估、风电接入 wind speed samples, expectations, entropy and hyper entropy 系统规划、风电场运行可靠性评估及调度运行决策 were obtained to construct the mixed half-cloud model by 等相关研究的基础。风速预测是风功率预测的关键 backward cloud generator, and then the cloud model of 步骤之一。提高风速模拟精度对提高风功率预测的 corresponding regions, and the positive cloud generator were 准确度有着重要的意义。 applied to simulate the irregular probability distribution of 目前，风速模型主要有时序模型[1-5]和概率分布 wind speed of each region. Finally, different wind speed cases, 模型[6-7]两大类。时序模型侧重描述相邻时刻风速的 with unimodal, irregular, bimodal or multimodal probability 变化过程，体现相邻时刻风速间的自相关性，经典 distribution, were compared to verify that the proposed model was simple, high-e