基于异方差高斯间距回归的产品设计时间预测模型.PDFVIP

绗瑇x 鍗风x 鏈 绯荤粺宸 绋 瀛 鎶 Vol.xx No.x xxxx 骞磝x 鏈 JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING Xxx. xxxx 鍩轰簬寮傛柟宸珮鏂棿璺濆洖褰掔殑浜у搧璁捐鏃堕棿棰勬祴妯″瀷 1,2 1,3 鍟嗗織鏍 , 涓ユ椽妫 (1. 涓滃崡澶у鑷姩鍖栧闄? 姹熻嫃鍗椾含210096; 2. 鐩愬煄宸ュ闄㈣嚜鍔ㄥ寲绯? 姹熻嫃鐩愬煄224003; 3. 涓滃崡澶у澶嶆潅宸ョ▼绯荤粺娴嬮噺涓庢帶鍒舵暀鑲查儴閲嶇偣瀹為獙瀹? 姹熻嫃鍗椾含210096) 鎽樿: 涓轰簡浣夸骇鍝佽璁℃椂闂撮娴嬫ā鍨嬫棦鍏嬫湇灏忔牱鏈拰寮傛柟宸櫔闊抽棶棰? 鍙堟彁渚涢櫎棰勬祴鍊间互澶栫殑鍏跺畠鏈夌敤淇℃伅, 寤 绔嬩竴绉嶅熀浜庡紓鏂瑰樊楂樻柉闂磋窛鍥炲綊(heteroscedastic Gaussian margin regression, HGMR)鐨勯娴嬫ā鍨? 棣栧厛, 鍋囧畾鍩轰簬鏍 鍑芥暟鐨勫洖褰掓ā鍨嬬殑鏉冮噸鍚戦噺鏈嶄粠楂樻柉鍒嗗竷, 浠ユ渶灏忓寲鐩稿鐔典负浼樺寲鐩爣, 鍒╃敤棰勬祴鍊肩殑缃俊鍖洪棿璁剧疆绾︽潫鏉′欢, 鏋勯€犲彲鍚屾椂缁欏嚭棰勬祴鍊煎拰棰勬祴鍖洪棿鐨凥GMR妯″瀷; 鐒跺悗, 鍒╃敤鏍锋湰鐨勭嫭绔嬫€у拰寮傛柟宸€у浼樺寲闂杩涜杞寲, 璇 鏄嶩GMR妯″瀷鍏锋湁杈冨ソ鐨勬帹骞挎€ц兘, 骞惰璁℃眰瑙ｇ浉搴斾紭鍖栭棶棰樼殑杩唬鏂规硶; 鏈€鍚? 浠ユ敞濉戞ā鍏疯璁＄殑瀹炰緥杩涜鍒嗘瀽, 缁撴灉琛ㄦ槑鍩轰簬HGMR鐨勬椂闂撮娴嬫ā鍨嬫槸鍙鏈夋晥鐨? 鍏抽敭璇岤 璁捐鏃堕棿棰勬祴; 鏍稿嚱鏁? 鐩稿鐔贷 寮傛柟宸 涓浘鍒嗙被鍙耳 TP391 TH12 鏂囩尞鏍囪瘑鐮? A 鏂囩珷缂栧彿: 1000鈭?781(2012)00鈭?000鈭?0 Forecast model for product design time based on heteroscedastic Gaussian margin regression SHANG Zhi-gen1,2, YAN Hong-sen1,3 (1. School of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China; 2. Department of Automation, Yancheng Institute of Technology, Yancheng 224003, China; 3. Key Laboratory of Measurement and Control of Complex Systems of Engineering, Ministry of Education, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China ) Abstract: A forecast model based on heteroscedastic Gaussian margin regression is proposed to overcome the problems of small samples and heteroscedastic noise in design time forecas