管理学,罗宾斯,9版,英文Robbins04.pptVIP

When managers make decisions, they not only use their own particular style but also may use “rules of thumb” or judgmental shortcuts called heuristics to simplify their decision making. However, rules of thumb are not necessarily reliable and can lead managers into error while processing and evaluating information. Exhibit 4-5 shows 12 common decision errors and biases: Overconfidence occurs when decision makers think they know more than they do or hold unrealistically positive views of themselves and their performance. Immediate gratification describes decision makers who want immediate rewards but want to avoid immediate costs. For these individuals, decision choices that provide quick payoffs are more appealing than those with payoffs in the future. The anchoring effect describes when decision makers fixate on initial information—such as first impressions, ideas, prices, and estimates—and then fail to adequately adjust for subsequent information. Selective perception occurs when decision makers organize and interpret events based on their biased perceptions, which influence the information they pay attention to, the problems they identify, and the alternatives they develop. Confirmation bias describes decision makers who seek out information that reaffirms their past choices and who discount information that contradicts past judgments. Such people tend to accept, at face value, information that confirms their preconceived views and are critical and skeptical of information that challenges these views. The framing bias occurs when decision makers select and highlight certain aspects of a situation while excluding others. By drawing attention to specific aspects of a situation and highlighting them, they downplay or omit other aspects, distort what they see, and create incorrect reference points. The availability bias occurs when decision makers focus on events that are the most recent and vivid in their memory. As a result, their ability to recall ev