山东省人口控制经济效益的研究.pdfVIP

根据山东省 1971-1999年现实的人口、经济的各项指标，构建人口一经济运行动态模型，利用前述步骤 I中的结果模拟无人口控制条件下的经济发展轨迹，与现实的经济发展轨迹对比，得出人口控制对宏观经济发展各单项指标的贡献率，然后运用专家打分法确定各项经济指标的权重，求得山东省人口控制对宏观经济发展的总贡献率。 第四部分:对策建议。根据理论与实证研究得到的启迪，提出应建立健全有利于人口良性发展的政策支持体系，即 “外生性”政策体系和“内生性”政策体系，并对人口控制政策支持体系的内涵构成要素进行了阐述。卜丫/关键词 人口控制 经济效益 人二一经济运行动态模型 山东杳扮 RESEARCH ON ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OFPOPULATION CONTROL IN SHANDONG PROVINCE ABSTRACT From early1970s,with the policy of family planning being implemented in Shandong Province, the population growth has been controled eficiently, and nationaleconomic growth has been a state of high speed. A great deal of researchabout population-economy suggests that population control has a positiveefect on economic growth. For the purpose of revealing the great contributionof population control in Shandong Province, a population- economydynamic model is established by means of econometrics methods on thebasisof inquiring quantities of literature and statistics, and using the population-economy dynamic model, the relations between population control andeconomic development in recent three decades is studied qualitatively and quantitatively. Pieces of countermeasure and suggestion are given for the futurepopulation control in Shandong Province. Thispaperis divided into four parts as the folowing: 1. Introduction.The theoretical and practical meaning and the methods of thisresearch are introduced briefly. 2. Theoreticanalysis. The outline of this article is drawn out, by analyzing theory ofeconomy-population and”theory of economy-population”on the basis of two kinds of production principle generated from Marxism. 3. Practicalanalysis. Selecting such two items of indexes as input-output ratio ofpopulation control and contribute rate to macro economy, economic eficiency of population control in Shandong Province is analyzed practicaly. Thewholeprocess goes in three steps as folowing: