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An International Comparative Study of Artificial Neural Network Techniques for River Stage Forecasting
ANNEXG - Artificial Neural Network Experiment Group
Introduction
Since the early 1990s over 150 papers have been published discussing the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to the problems of hydrological modelling. Despite this extensive literature base, a common set of operational methodologies has still to emerge, although some attempts have been made to define one (Dawson and Wilby, 2001). In addition, the extensive range of different types of network, training algorithms and software tools available, means that a standard implementation of this kind of model has not emerged and the application of these models in real time is still awaited.
In order to explore and evaluate the approaches that different neurohydrologists employ, an inter-comparison exercise was established. This exercise involved the dissemination of a benchmark catchment data set to seventeen neurohydrologists world wide. Each was given the freedom to develop up to two ANN models for t+1 and t+3 days ahead forecasting in an unknown catchment. An additional motivation for this exercise was to investigate the potential of ensemble forecasting to improve forecast accuracy and, taking this work further, using ensembles to provide confidence in modelling performance.
Catchment description
Table 1 provides important hydrological statistics of the river catchment in central England which formed the basis of this exercise. The modelling was undertaken ‘blindly’ by all participants in order that none were disadvantaged through lack of first hand knowledge of the catchment. The site receives on average 700 mm of precipitation per year, distributed evenly across the seasons. However, the drainage network is restricted to the lowest part of the catchment, and comprises an ephemeral system of small inter-connected ponds and subsurface tile drains. Furthermore, a network of natu
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