ppt课件-problem definitionand causal loop diagrams（问题definitionand因果循环图）.pptVIP

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ppt课件-problem definitionand causal loop diagrams（问题definitionand因果循环图）.ppt

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Problem Definition and Causal Loop Diagrams James R. Burns July 2008 Assignment Complete exercise 12 and use VENSIM to create the CLD VENSIM cannot translate CLD’s into working simulations Develop the CLD for your term project problem Problem Definition The wrong model for the right problem is disconcerting, but fixable The “right” model for the wrong problem is disastrous The Right Problem The first order of the day Requires discussion, dialogue, listening “I feel your pain” The right paradigm Is this a dynamic problem? Are there risk aspects to it? Is it a resource allocation problem? A scheduling/routing problem? A cost minimization problem? APPLY THE RIGHT PARADIGM Dynamic problems There is change over time The changing character of the situation IS THE PROBLEM The problem should be studied in aggregates The problem does not have a significant stochastic component or complexion to it Dynamical Models: Explicit, Ordinary Differential Equations Start with descriptions of the following PURPOSE Identify who the decision-maker(s) are and involve them in the model-building process PERSPECTIVE PROBLEM MODE What are we doing here???? Attempting to characterize, cope with and understand complexity Especially DYNAMIC complexity, but also to a lesser extent detail complexity Inventing a physics for a system or process for which there exists no physics You get to become a Newton, a Liebnitz, a Galileo, an Einstein, a …. WHY??? How many of you have ever used a model to make a decision or take an action? All decisions/executive actions are taken on the basis of models all the time Because mental models frame and color our understanding of the problem—forcing us to take a particular course of action Mental models must be driven by more formal, refined and analytical models—causal models/simulation models Uses to which these models can be put What IF experiments—hands on experimentation Decision making Planning Problem solving Creativity Out of the box thinking Hypothesis t