National Weather Service ema国家气象局EMA.alabama.gov.pptVIP

* * * * * * * * Track chart of the storms of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season * * Based on this forecast, I will: A) Plan for more impacts than last year B) Cry “Holy ^%$” and move to Canada C) Do the same as every year * Seasonal Forecast 2010…it only takes one… * Andrew Track Map Tropical cyclones are born, live, and die in a variety of ways H Oil Spill and Gulf Storms Direct hit of major storm – big surge more damaging than oil (life threatening and mix of toxic material from damage caused by surge) Weak storm or large storm passing well to south raises water levels 2 to 5 feet bringing oil to places previously untouched. Contact Information Jeff.Garmon@noaa.gov 251-633-6443 x223 David.McShane@noaa.gov 251-633-6443 x222 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 2010 Hurricane Season Outlook and Considerations Jeff Garmon Warning Coordination Meteorologist David McShane Meteorologist in Charge NOAA – National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile, AL National Weather ServiceHurricane Forecasting Operations National Hurricane Center (Miami) Track and model forecast guidance Broad-scale track and intensity parameters NWS Forecast Office (Mobile) Storm-scale impacts and timing Winds Surge Tornadoes Rainfall The Good  track forecast improvements Changes to Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warning Lead Times in 2010 Lead time virtually unchanged while skill in track forecasting has improved NHC in fact frequently does issue watches and warnings at longer lead time than Directive indicates Key evacuation decisions now need to be made before 24 h and in some cases before 48 h Some jurisdictions, businesses, and schools still tag closure decisions to warning or watch Coastal County Population, Texas to Maine 53% of the U.S. population now lives within 50 miles of the coast Year Population New for 2010 Tropical Storm / Hurricane Warnings will be issued for onset of Tropical Storm / Hurricane conditions 36 hours in advance. Tropical Storm / Hur