Population Growth ONID人口增长3.pptVIP

Population Growth Darwin’s elephants Is this realistic? Population growth Continuous population growth The exponential growth rate: r Can we predict population size into the future? Modeling grizzly bears in Yellowstone BUT… grizzlies don’t have continuous reproduction… The trajectory might look like this… Some terminology Relationship between r and λ How do exponential and geometric growth differ? Some assumptions about exponential and geometric growth Constant growth rate?? That “no structure” assumption… Consider the difference… Consider the difference… Structure and population growth An example… Unstructured versus stage-classified model Unstructured versus stage-classified model We can rewrite this: Unstructured versus stage-classified model Review Review Review UNGRADED HOMEWORK * The first law of populations: “A population will grow (or decline) exponentially as long as the environment experienced by all individuals remains constant” -P. Turchin. 2001. Oikos 94:17-26. “…after a period of 740 to 750 years there would be nearly 19 million elephants alive, descended from the first pair.” Actually, yes. Any population may show this growth for short periods of time Asking why it ISN’T happening is extremely valuable Nt+1 = Nt + B + I - D- E Let’s assume geographic closure: Nt+1 = Nt + B - D Let’s also assume continuous population growth…. dN/dt = B - D “the change in population size with respect to time is due to the difference between number of births and deaths” b = per capita birth rate d = per capita mortality rate dN/dt = (b - d)N Let (b- d) = r; The equation becomes: dN/dt = rN The change in population size with respect to time is a function of the exponential growth rate multiplied by the population size dN/dt = rN Using calculus, we can integrate this Into the equation, Nt = N0ert This is known as the exponential equation It describes continuous population growth Gotelli 2001 p. 7 We can use a discrete-time model to represent breeding seasons s