Possibility Theory and its applications a retrospective and可能性理论及其应用.pptVIP

Possibility Theory and its applications: a retrospective and prospective view D. Dubois, H. Prade IRIT-CNRS, Université Paul Sabatier 31062 TOULOUSE FRANCE Outline Basic definitions Pioneers Qualitative possibility theory Quantitative possibility theory Possibility theory is an uncertainty theory devoted to the handling of incomplete information. similar to probability theory because it is based on set-functions. differs by the use of a pair of dual set functions (possibility and necessity measures) instead of only one. it is not additive and makes sense on ordinal structures. The concept of possibility Feasibility: It is possible to do something (physical) Plausibility: It is possible that something occurs (epistemic) Consistency : Compatible with what is known (logical) Permission: It is allowed to do something (deontic) POSSIBILITY DISTRIBUTIONS(uncertainty) S: frame of discernment (set of states of the world) x : ill-known description of the current state of affairs taking its value on S L: Plausibility scale: totally ordered set of plausibility levels ([0,1], finite chain, integers,...) A possibility distribution πx attached to x is a mapping from S to L?: ?s, πx(s) ? L, such that ?s, πx(s) = 1 (normalization) Conventions: πx(s) = 0 iff x = s is impossible, totally excluded πx(s) = 1 iff x = s is normal, fully plausible, unsurprizing EXAMPLE : x = AGE OF PRESIDENT If I do not know the age of the president, I may have statistics on presidents ages… but generally not, or they may be irrelevant. partial ignorance : 70 ≤ x ≤ 80 (sets, intervals) a uniform possibility distribution π(x) = 1 x ? [70, 80] = 0 otherwise partial ignorance with preferences : May have reasons to believe that 72 71 ? 73 70 ? 74 75 76 77 EXAMPLE : x = AGE OF PRESIDENT Linguistic information described by fuzzy sets: “?he is old?”?: π = μOLD If I bet on presidents age: I may come up with a subjective probabil