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Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents.pdf

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Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents.pdf

Physica A 388 (2009) 4126–4144 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Physica A journal homepage: /locate/physa Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents Gunter M. Schütz a,b,?, Fernando Pigeard de Almeida Prado c, Rosemary J. Harris d, Vladimir Belitsky e a Institut für Festk?rperforschung, Forschungszentrum Jülich, 52425 Jülich, Germany b Interdisziplin?res Zentrum für Komplexe Systeme, Universit?t Bonn, R?merstr. 164, 53117 Bonn, Germany c Departamento de Física e Matemática, FFCLRP, Universidade de S?o Paulo, 14040-901, Ribeir?o Preto, SP, Brazil d School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London, E1 4NS, United Kingdom e Instituto de Matemática e Estatística, Universidade de S?o Paulo, Rua do Mat?o, 1010, CEP 05508-090, S?o Paulo, SP, Brazil article info Article history: Received 13 February 2009 Received in revised form 11 May 2009 Available online 21 June 2009 Keywords: Heterogeneous interacting-agent model Asset market Social interaction Collective behaviour Temporal fluctuations Price oscillations Exactly solvable model of an asset market abstract We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time nonequilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account the market price and the perceived fundamental value of the asset. The resulting excess demand is coupled to the market price. Rigorous analysis reveals that this feedback may lead to price oscillations, a single bounce, or monotonic price behaviour. The model is a rare example of an analytically tractable interacting-agent model which allows us to deduce in detail the origin of these different collective patterns. For a natural choice of initial distribution, the results are in

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