我国肉鹅产业经济预测研究.pdfVIP

( I tll在舍 2014年第 36卷第 6期 China Poultry Vo1.36.No.6.2014 。产业经济。 我国内鹅产业经济预测研究* 马林静，王雅鹏H (华中农业大学经济管理学院，湖北武汉 430070) 摘 要:利用 1991-2011 年FAO与国家水禽产业技术体系内部统计的肉鹅生产数据，运用 ARIMA模型、线性回归、比例预测、经验调整4种方法对我国肉鸪的出栏量、产肉量和鹅 肉价格进行了预测。综合预测结果表明， 2014年我国鹅存栏量的平均值为 17406.5 万只， 鹅肉产量为 1 747613 吨，鹅价格为 26884元/吨。另外，参照扬州大学徐琪根据我国鹅品 种统计的鹅年存栏量21195 万只，可以估算出 2014年我国鹅年存栏量将处在1.7亿只-2.1亿 只区间之内。鉴于该综合预测结果，为促进肉鹅产业平稳度过调整期走向更加优化的产业 结构，对2013年禽流感冲击后的肉鹅产业提出了相关的政策建议。 关键词:肉鹅产业;存栏量;产肉量;价格;预测 Study on Economic Forecast of Chinese Goose Industry MA Linjing , WANG Yapeng** (College of Economics and Management , Huazhong Agricultural University , Wuhan , Hubei 430070) Abstract: ?ased on the goose production data of 1991 to 2011 from FAO and the intemal statistics of National Waterfowl IndustIγTechnology System about the waterfowl industry , the goose production , meat production and meat price in China were predicted using the ARIMA model , linear regression , proportional prediction , and experience- based adjustments. The comprehensive predictions provided an average forecast of 174.065 million for the 2014 number of domestic geese in China , 1 747613 tons for the goose meat production , and 26884 yuan per ton for the meat price. Furthermore , according to XU Qi from Yangzhou U niversity forecasts based on the goose varieties that there would be 21 1.95 million geese raised in China in 2014. Hence , the 2014 number of domestic geese in China was estimated in the range of 170 to 210 million. Finally , on this basis , policy recommendations were put forward to ensure the goose industry could make a smooth transition to the optimized industrial structure after being affected by the 2013 avian influenza. Key words:g∞ise industry; stock ; meat production; price ; forecast 近二十年来，我国鹅存栏量和鹅肉产量除个 别年份受禽流感等因素影响而出现较小波动外， 均呈现平稳上升趋势，预示着我国鹅产业正在进 收稿日期 :2013-10-24 修回日期 :2014-02-05 *基金项目:现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金{CARS-43-10B) **通讯作者，E-mail: wangyp@mail.hzau.edu.cn 人稳步发展期。进一步探究鹅产业波动的原因发 现，饲料价格、人工成本、疫情、政策等来自鹅产业 系统内和系统外的因素，都会对鹅产业产生不同