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Copula-based statistical refinement of precipitation in RCM simulations over complex terrain.doc

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Copula-based statistical refinement of precipitation in RCM simulations over complex terrain

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2401–2419, 2011 /15/2401/2011/ doi:10.5194/hess-15-2401-2011 Hydrologyand EarthSystem Sciences ? Author(s) 2011. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Copula-based statistical re?nement of precipitation in RCM simulations over complex terrain P. Laux1, S. Vogl2, W. Qiu1, H. R. Knoche1, and H. Kunstmann1,2 1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany 2University of Augsburg, Institute for Geography, Regional Climate and Hydrology, 86135 Augsburg, Germany Received: 17 March 2011 – Published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 29 March 2011 Revised: 27 June 2011 – Accepted: 27 July 2011 – Published: 29 July 2011 Abstract. This paper presents a new Copula-based method for further downscaling regional climate simulations. It is developed, applied and evaluated for selected stations in the alpine region of Germany. Apart from the common way to use Copulas to model the extreme values, a strategy is pro- posed which allows to model continuous time series. As the concept of Copulas requires independent and identically distributed (iid) random variables, meteorological ?elds are transformed using an ARMA-GARCH time series model. In this paper, we focus on the positive pairs of observed and modelled (RCM) precipitation. According to the empirical copulas, signi?cant upper and lower tail dependence between observed and modelled precipitation can be observed. These dependence structures are further conditioned on the prevail- ing large-scale weather situation. Based on the derived theo- retical Copula models, stochastic rainfall simulations are per- formed, ?nally allowing for bias corrected and locally re?ned RCM simulations. allow for local scale climate differences, particularly in com- plex terrain. Usually there exist tremendous biases between modelled and observed climate statistics (e.g. Schmidli et al., 2007; Smiatek