用气象要素确立的当地发生沙尘暴的可能性指数.docVIP

Advances in Geoscience 地球科学前沿, 2011, 1, 7-16 /10.12677/ag.2011.11002 Published Online September 2011 (/journal/ag/) A Descriptor for the Local Dust Storm Occurrence Probability Constituted by Meteorological Factors Wanyuan Li 1,2,3* , Shihua Lv 1 , Zhibao Dong , Shigong Wang , 2 3 1 1 , Ye Yu , Yinhuan Ao Zhibao Shen 1 , Yuchun Chen 1 1 Key Laboratory for Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 2 3 Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou Email: ywl@ Received: Jul. 11th, 2011; revised: Aug. 1st, 2011; accepted: Aug. 28th, 2011. Abstract: Based on the daily data sets of 17 meteorological factors during the period of 1954-2005 for 60 gauge stations distributed over Gansu Province of China and the corresponding dust storm records, the dust storm probabilities related to different classes of each factor have been calculated and analyzed. On the basis of the analysis, a meteorological descriptor quantifying the daily dust storm happening probability for each station, which is referred to as the dust storm occurrence probability index (DSOPI), has been effectively established. According to the statistical characteristics of DSOPI for each station, a feasible judging criterion for a dust storm event, which can greatly contribute to forecasting dust storms and filling up the unavailable historic dust storm records, has been determined. The average daily dust storm probability related to each factor on the dust storm day has been specially analyzed for all the stations, indicating that, generally, the more signifi