基于蒙特卡罗模拟的微电网随机潮流计算方法.pdfVIP

20 11 年 电 工 技 术 学 报 Vol.26 Sup .1 第 26 卷增刊 1 TRAN SACTION S OF CHINA ELECTROTECHNICAL SOCIETY 20 11 基于蒙特卡罗模拟的微电网随机潮流计算方法 段玉兵 龚宇雷 谭兴国 王辉 李庆民 （山东大学电气工程学院 济南 25006 1） 摘要 微电源因输出特性各异而采用 同的电力电子变换拓扑接入微电网，使得潮流计算 方法更为复杂，而间歇性微电源的存在，则使系统的潮流计算具有随机特征。基于 同间歇性 电源的概率密度函数，采用蒙特卡洛法模拟间歇性微电源的随机特性，并将电力电子变换拓扑 的功率转变特性纳入到微电源的潮流分析模型中，进一步结合前推回代算法，建立了微电网随 机潮流的计算方法，为微电网的可靠性评估分析与优化控制奠定基础。针对该方法的算例表明， 通过调 微电源变换器的控制参数，可有效减少每年的电压及电流越限小时数，提高微电网运 行可靠性。 关键词：微电网 随机潮流 变换器 微电源 仿真 中图分类 ：TM464 Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation in Microgrid Based on Monte- Carlo Simulation D uan Yubing Gong Yulei Tan X ingg uo Wang H ui L i Qingmin （School of Electrical Engineering Shandong University Jinan 25006 1 China ） Abstract Microsources with various output characteristics are embedded into microgrids through multiple power electronic converters, which make the power flow analysis of the microgrid even more complicated. In addition, the power flow computation within the microgrids renders probabilistic behavior due to existence of some intermittent microsources. With probability density functions of the intermittent microsources and combined with the backward-forward sweep method, an effective calculation methodology for probabilistic power plows fithin the microgrids is established, in which Monte-Carlo scheme is adopted as to simulate stochastic performance of the intermittent microsources, and the transformation characteristics of the power electronic converters are also incorporated into the proposed power flow analysis models of the microsources. A corresponding program is developed for probabil