Evaluation of Coseasonality of Influenza and Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Results from Prospective Surveillance 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Evaluation of Coseasonality of Influenza and Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Results from Prospective Surveillance 英文参考文献.doc

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Evaluation of Coseasonality of Influenza and Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Results from Prospective Surveillance 英文参考文献

EvaluationofCoseasonalityofInfluenzaandInvasive PneumococcalDisease:ResultsfromProspective Surveillance StefanP.Kuster1,AshleighR.Tuite2,JeffreyC.Kwong2,3,4,AllisonMcGeer1,2,5,theTorontoInvasive BacterialDiseasesNetwork,DavidN.Fisman2,5* 1Department ofMicrobiology,Mount SinaiHospital, Toronto,Ontario,Canada,2DallaLanaSchoolofPublicHealth,UniversityofToronto,Toronto,Ontario,Canada, 3DepartmentofFamilyandCommunityMedicine,UniversityofToronto,Toronto,Ontario,Canada,4InstituteforClinicalEvaluativeSciences,Toronto,Ontario,Canada, 5DepartmentofHealthPolicy,ManagementandEvaluation,UniversityofToronto,Toronto,Ontario,Canada Abstract Background: The wintertime co-occurrence of peaks in influenza and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is well documented,buthowandwhetherwintertimepeakscausedbythesetwopathogensarecausallyrelatedisstilluncertain. We aimed to investigate the relationship between influenza infection and IPD in Ontario, Canada, using several complementarymethodologicaltools. Methods and Findings: We evaluated a total number of 38,501 positive influenza tests in Central Ontario and 6,191 episodesofIPDintheToronto/Peelarea,Ontario,Canada,between1January1995and3October2009,reportedthrough population-basedsurveillance.WeassessedtherelationshipbetweentheseasonalwaveformsforinfluenzaandIPDusing fastFouriertransformsinordertoexaminetherelationshipbetweenthesetwopathogensoveryearlytimescales.Wealso used three complementary statistical methods (time-series methods, negative binomial regression, and case-crossover methods)toevaluatetheshort-termeffectofinfluenzadynamicsonpneumococcalrisk.Annualperiodicitywithwintertime peakscouldbedemonstratedforIPD,whereasperiodicityforinfluenzawaslessregular.Asforlong-termeffects,phaseand amplitude terms of pneumococcal and influenza seasonal sine waves were not correlated and meta-analysis confirmed significantheterogeneity ofinfluenza, butnot pneumococcal phaseterms.Incontrast, influenza wasshowntoGranger- causepneumococcaldisease.A