Evolutionary Game Theory and Social Learning Can Determine How Vaccine Scares Unfold 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Evolutionary Game Theory and Social Learning Can Determine How Vaccine Scares Unfold 英文参考文献.doc

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Evolutionary Game Theory and Social Learning Can Determine How Vaccine Scares Unfold 英文参考文献

EvolutionaryGameTheoryandSocialLearningCan DetermineHowVaccineScaresUnfold ChrisT.Bauch1,2*,SamitBhattacharyya1,3 1DepartmentofMathematicsandStatistics,UniversityofGuelph,Guelph,Canada,2DepartmentofEcologyandEvolutionaryBiology,PrincetonUniversity,Princeton, NewJersey,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3DepartmentofMathematics,UniversityofUtah,SaltLakeCity,Utah,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Immunizationprogramshaveoftenbeenimpededbyvaccinescares,asevidencedbythemeasles-mumps-rubella(MMR) autismvaccinescareinBritain.A‘‘freerider’’effectmaybepartlyresponsible:vaccine-generatedherdimmunitycanreduce diseaseincidencetosuchlowlevelsthatrealorimaginedvaccinerisksappearlargeincomparison,causingindividualsto ceasevaccinating.Thisimpliesafeedbackloopbetweendiseaseprevalenceandstrategicindividualvaccinatingbehavior. Here,weanalyzeamodelbasedonevolutionarygametheorythatcapturesthisfeedbackinthecontextofvaccinescares, and that also includes social learning. Vaccine risk perception evolves over time according to an exogenously imposed curve.WetestthemodelagainstvaccinecoveragedataanddiseaseincidencedatafromtwovaccinescaresinEngland Wales:thewholecellpertussisvaccinescareandtheMMRvaccinescare.Themodelfitsvaccinecoveragedatafromboth vaccinescaresrelativelywell.Moreover,themodelcanexplainthevaccinecoveragedatamoreparsimoniouslythanmost competingmodelswithoutsociallearningand/orfeedback(hence,addingsociallearningandfeedbacktoavaccinescare modelimprovesmodelfitwithlittleornoparsimonypenalty).Undersomecircumstances,themodelcanpredictfuture vaccinecoverageanddiseaseincidence—upto10yearsinadvanceinthecaseofpertussis—includingspecificqualitative features of the dynamics, such as future incidence peaks and undulations in vaccine coverage due to the population’s responsetochangingdiseaseincidence.Vaccinescarescouldbecomemorecommonaseradicationgoalsareapproached for more vaccine-preventable diseases. Such models could help us predict how vaccine scares might unfold and assist mitigationefforts. Citati