Some Clouds Have a Silver Lining Paradoxes of Anthropogenic Perturbations from Study Cases on Long-Lived Social Birds 英文参考文献.docVIP

SomeCloudsHaveaSilverLining:Paradoxesof AnthropogenicPerturbationsfromStudyCasesonLong- LivedSocialBirds DanielOro1*,JuanJime′nez2,AntoniCurco′3 1InstitutMediterranid’EstudisAvanc?ats IMEDEA,CSIC-UIB,Esporles,Spain,2ConselleriadeMedioAmbiente,GeneralitatValenciana,Valencia,Spain,3ParcNaturaldel Deltadel’Ebre,Deltebre,Spain Abstract Inrecentcenturiesandabovealloverthelastfewdecades,humanactivitieshavegeneratedperturbations(frommildto very severe or catastrophes) that, when added to those of natural origin, constitute a global threat to biodiversity. Predictingtheeffectsofanthropogenicperturbationsonspeciesandcommunitiesisagreatscientificchallengegiventhe complexityofecosystemsandtheneedfordetailedpopulationdatafrombothbeforeandaftertheperturbations.Herewe present three cases of well-documented anthropogenic severe perturbations (different forms of habitat loss and deterioration influencing fertility and survival) that have affected three species of birds (a raptor, a scavenger and a waterbird) for which we possess long-term population time series. We tested whether the perturbations caused serious populationdeclineorwhetherthestudyspecieswereresilient,thatis,itspopulationdynamicswererelativelyunaffected. Twoofthespeciesdiddecline,althoughtoarelativelysmallextentwithnoshifttoastateoflowerpopulationnumbers. Subsequently, these populations recovered rapidly and numbers reached similar levels to before the perturbations. Strikingly, in the third species a strong breakpoint took place towards greater population sizes, probably due to the colonizationofnewareasbyrecruitsthatwerequeuingatthedestroyedhabitat.Eventhoughitisdifficulttodrawpatterns of resilience from only three cases, the study species were all long-lived, social species with excellent dispersal and colonization abilities, capable of skipping reproduction and undergoing a phase of significant long-term population increase. The search for such patterns is crucial for optimizing the limited resources allocated