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Exploiting the noise improving biomarkers with ensembles of data analysis methodologies
Starmansetal.GenomeMedicine2012,4:84
/2012/4/11/84
RESEARCH
OpenAccess
Exploitingthenoise:improvingbiomarkers
withensemblesofdataanalysismethodologies
MaudHWStarmans1,2*,MelaniaPintilie3,ThomasJohn4,SandyDDer3,FrancesAShepherd5,IgorJurisica3,6,7,8,
PhilippeLambin2,Ming-SoundTsao3andPaulCBoutros1,6*
Abstract
Background:Theadventofpersonalizedmedicinerequiresrobust,reproduciblebiomarkersthatindicatewhich
treatmentwillmaximizetherapeuticbenefitwhileminimizingsideeffectsandcosts.Numerousmolecular
signatureshavebeendevelopedoverthepastdecadetofillthisneed,buttheirvalidationandup-takeintoclinical
settingshasbeenpoor.Here,weinvestigatethetechnicalreasonsunderlyingreportedfailuresinbiomarker
validationfornon-smallcelllungcancer(NSCLC).
Methods:Weevaluatedtwopublishedprognosticmulti-genebiomarkersforNSCLCinanindependent442-
patientdataset.Wethensystematicallyassessedhowtechnicalfactorsinfluencedvalidationsuccess.
Results:Bothbiomarkersvalidatedsuccessfully(biomarker#1:hazardratio(HR)1.63,95%confidenceinterval(CI)
1.21to2.19,P=0.001;biomarker#2:HR1.42,95%CI1.03to1.96,P=0.030).Further,despitebeingunderpowered
forstage-specificanalyses,bothbiomarkerssuccessfullystratifiedstageIIpatientsandbiomarker#1alsostratified
stageIBpatients.Wethensystematicallyevaluatedreasonsforreportedvalidationfailuresandfindtheycanbe
directlyattributedtotechnicalchallengesindataanalysis.Byexamining24separatepre-processingtechniqueswe
showthatminoralterationsinpre-processingcanchangeasuccessfulprognosticbiomarker(HR1.85,95%CI1.37
to2.50,P0.001)intooneindistinguishablefromrandomchance(HR1.15,95%CI0.86to1.54,P=0.348).Finally,
wedevelopanewmethod,basedonensemblesofanalysismethodologies,toexploitthistechnicalvariabilityto
improvebiomarkerrobustnessandtoprovideanindependentconfidencemetric.
Conclusions:Biomarkerscompriseafundamentalcomponentofpersonalizedmedicine.Wefirstvalidatedtwo
NSCLCprognosticbiomarkersinanindependentpatientcohort.Poweranalysesdemonstratethateventhislarge,
442-patientcohortisunder-po
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