black-scholes option pricing model modified to admit a miniscule drift can reproduce the volatility smile布莱克-斯科尔斯期权定价模型修改承认一个微乎其微的漂移可以再现波动微笑.pdfVIP
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black-scholes option pricing model modified to admit a miniscule drift can reproduce the volatility smile布莱克-斯科尔斯期权定价模型修改承认一个微乎其微的漂移可以再现波动微笑
Applied Mathematics, 2012, 3, 597-605
/10.4236/am.2012.36093 Published Online June 2012 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/am)
Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model Modified to Admit a
Miniscule Drift Can Reproduce the Volatility Smile
1 2*
Matthew C. Modisett , James A. Powell
1Financial Guard Ltd., London, UK
2Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Utah State University, Logan, USA
*
Email: jim.powell@
Received November 2, 2011; revised April 10, 2012; accepted May 17, 2012
ABSTRACT
This paper develops a closed-form solution to an extended Black-Scholes (EBS) pricing formula which admits an im-
plied drift parameter alongside the standard implied volatility. The market volatility smiles for vanilla call options on
the SP 500 index are recreated fitting the best volatility-drift combination in this new EBS. Using a likelihood ratio
test, the implied drift parameter is seen to be quite significant in explaining volatility smiles. The implied drift parame-
ter is sufficiently small to be undetectable via historical pricing analysis, suggesting that drift is best considered as an
implied parameter rather than a historically-fit one. An overview of option-pricing models is provided as background.
Keywords: Option Pricing; Black-Scholes; Volatility Smile
1. Introduction An option is a financial contract between a seller (or
writer) and a buyer, in which a buyer, in exchange for a
An often reite
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