development of a regional regression model for estimating annual runoff in the hailar river basin of china发展区域回归模型估计每年在中国的海拉尔河流域径流.pdfVIP

J. Water Resource and Protection, 2010, 2, 934-943 doi:10.4236/jwarp.2010.211111 Published Online November 2010 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/jwarp) Development of a Regional Regression Model for Estimating Annual Runoff in the Hailar River Basin of China Limin Duan1,2, Tingxi Liu1*, Xixi Wang2*, Yanyun Luo1,2, Long Wu3 1 Ph.D. Candidates (Duan and Luo) and Dean and Prof., College of Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China 2 Visiting Scholars (Duan and Luo) and Assistant Prof., Department of Engineering and Physics, Tarleton State Univer- sity, Stephenville, USA 3Civil Engineer, Hebei Institute of Investigation Design of Water Conservancy Hydropower, Tianjin, China E-mail : {duanlimin820116, txliu 1966}@163.com, xwang@ Received September 10, 2010; revised October 18, 2010; accepted October 18, 2010 Abstract The Hailar River, a first-grade tributary of the Erguna River that borders China and Russia, is the main water source for the local industry and agriculture. However, because there are only 11 flow gauging stations and those stations cannot monitor all runoff paths, it is hard to directly use the existing flow data to estimate the annual runoffs from all subbasins of interest although such estimation is needed for utilization and protection of the water resources in the Hailar River. Thus, this study implemented an indirect approach (i.e., regional regression model) by correlating annual runoff with annual rainfall and water surface evaporation as well as hydrologic characteristics of the 11 subbasins monitored by the gauging stations. The study used 51 years (from 1956 to 2006) data. The results indicated a significant cor