comparability of results from pair and classical model formulations for different sexually transmitted infections可比性的结果对模型和经典配方不同的性传播感染.pdfVIP

Comparability of Results from Pair and Classical Model Formulations for Different Sexually Transmitted Infections 1 2 2 1,3,4 Jimmy Boon Som Ong *, Xiuju Fu , Gary Kee Khoon Lee , Mark I-Cheng Chen 1 Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, Singapore, 2 Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research, Singapore, Singapore, 3 Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, 4 Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore, Singapore Abstract The ‘‘classical model’’ for sexually transmitted infections treats partnerships as instantaneous events summarized by partner change rates, while individual-based and pair models explicitly account for time within partnerships and gaps between partnerships. We compared predictions from the classical and pair models over a range of partnership and gap combinations. While the former predicted similar or marginally higher prevalence at the shortest partnership lengths, the latter predicted self-sustaining transmission for gonorrhoea (GC) and Chlamydia (CT) over much broader partnership and gap combinations. Predictions on the critical level of condom use (Cc) required to prevent transmission also differed substantially when using the same parameters. When calibrated to give the same disease prevalence as the pair model by adjusting the infectious duration for GC and CT, and by adjusting transmission probabilities for HIV, the classical model then predicted much higher Cc values for GC and CT, while Cc predictions for HIV were fairly close. In conclusion, the two approaches give different predictions over potentially i