delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza延迟大流行性流感的国际传播.pdfVIP

PLoS MEDICINE Delaying the International Spread of Pandemic Influenza * Ben S. Cooper , Richard J. Pitman, W. John Edmunds, Nigel J. Gay Statistics, Modelling, and Bioinformatics Department, Centre for Infections, Health Protection Agency, London, United Kingdom Funding: This work was funded by A B S T R A C T the Health Protection Agency and, in part, by the EU SARSCONTROL Background project. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the preparation of the manuscript. potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large interests exist. increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid Academic Editor: Jaime Sepulveda- global dissemination than in previous pandemics. Amor, Mexican National Institutes of Health, Mexico Methods and Findings Citation: Cooper BS, Pitman RJ, Edmunds WJ, Gay NJ (2006) Delaying To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global the international spread of dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based pandemic influenza. PLoS Med 3(6):