development of the respiratory index of severity in children (risc) score among young children with respiratory infections in south africa发展儿童的呼吸道的严重程度指数(risc)得分在儿童呼吸道感染在南非.pdfVIP

Development of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) Score among Young Children with Respiratory Infections in South Africa 1,2 3,4 3,4 3 2,5 Carrie Reed *, Shabir A. Madhi , Keith P. Klugman , Locadiah Kuwanda , Justin R. Ortiz , Lyn Finelli1, Alicia M. Fry1 1 Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America, 2 Epidemic Intelligence Service, Office of Workforce and Career Development, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America, 3 Respiratory and Meningeal Pathogens Research Unit, Department of Science and Technology/National Research Foundation, Vaccine Preventable Diseases and Medical Research Council, University of the Witwatersrand, Bertsham, South Africa, 4 Hubert Department of Public Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America, 5 University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America Abstract Objective: Pneumonia is a leading cause of death in children worldwide. A simple clinical score predicting the probability of death in a young child with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) could aid clinicians in case management and provide a standardized severity measure during epidemiologic studies. Methods: We analyzed 4,148 LRTI hospitalizations in children ,24 months enrolled in a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine trial in South Africa from 1998–2001, to develop the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC). Using clinical data at admission, a multivariable logistic regression model for mortality was developed and statistically evaluated using bootst